Venezuelans see, for the first time since 2017, a possible way out of the political impasse that plunged them into a severe economic crisis. Under the patronage of Mexico and Norway, Saturday, November 26, the power and the opposition signed an agreement which will release part of the funds of Venezuela frozen abroad, because of the American sanctions. More than 3 billion euros will be injected into emergency aid programs, enough to breathe life into a beleaguered regime and a population sinking into poverty.
When this agreement was announced, the United States immediately decreed an easing of the oil embargo against the South American country, which holds the largest black gold reserves in the world. Concretely, the oil giant Chevron will be able to resume during the next six months part of its hydrocarbon extractions. Enough to revive local production, which has fallen to 765,000 barrels per day (compared to 2.3 million in the 2000s) under the effect of American sanctions decided in 2019, in the hope of ousting the contested president Nicolás Maduro.
“Venezuelan oil has become strategic”
Started on March 8, the resumption of dialogue between the United States and Venezuela is confirmed against a backdrop of war on the European continent. “Because of the sanctions against Russia, the energy context has changed, recalls Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky, director of the Latin American Observatory of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. Venezuelan oil has become strategic, which has prompted the Americans to review their policy, dragging the Europeans in their wake. »
Power in Caracas is gradually emerging from its diplomatic isolation. Taking the opposite view from his predecessor, the new Colombian President Gustavo Petro began to normalize his relations with his neighbor as soon as he took office in August. France’s position has also changed dramatically. Receiving the opposition and the power at the Peace Forum on November 11, Emmanuel Macron called Nicolás Maduro “president” several times, de facto recognizing the failure of the self-proclaimed president Juan Guaido, whom the Europeans had nevertheless recognized.
The continuation of negotiations
In the coming weeks, the power and the opposition must address the political aspect of the negotiations in Caracas. Among the elements of the discussion are the organization of a free presidential election, general amnesty and the end of economic sanctions. «Nicolás Maduro, who was in a critical situation, was able to seize the opportunities offered by the conflict in Ukraineadds researcher Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky. If the daily life of Venezuelans improves, it is possible that he will gain an advantage against a deeply divided opposition. »