Demonstrations in China: for the first time, Xi Jinping faces a major challenge

“No more PCR tests, we want freedom!”, “Democracy and the rule of law! Freedom of expression”, chanted demonstrators during a crazy weekend. When others even dared to attack the all-powerful Chinese president: “No emperor, no reign for life” or “Xi Jinping, resign!”. Never, since the Tiananmen Square movement in 1989, have so many Chinese challenged the communist regime so head-on. And even then, it was not the Chinese No. 1, Deng Xiaoping, who was targeted, but the Prime Minister.

In dozens of cities and universities, outraged citizens and students have gathered to shout their rejection of the “zero Covid” policy applied blindly and brutally by the communist regime since the start of the Covid-19 epidemic, almost three years ago. A cry of revolt that turned into a political claim against a power deaf to the suffering of a population whose daily life has become hell.

A month after being triumphantly reappointed for a third term as head of the country, Xi Jinping faces his most serious political challenge since coming to power at the end of 2012. Even if the movement remains very much in the minority, a breach has been opened. The movement indeed reflects an accumulation of frustrations, crystallized around the “zero Covid” policy: lack of freedom of movement, arbitrary confinements decided overnight, economic difficulties, real estate crisis, high unemployment among young people… Chinese were expecting restrictions to be loosened after the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) last October, but the epidemic has rebounded and their hopes have been dashed.

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Xi Jinping’s response

For the time being, the regime has not reacted officially. But Xi Jinping is faced with extremely complex choices. If he relaxes the “zero Covid” policy, he risks seeing the number of contaminations soar and the hospital system being overwhelmed, given the lack of effectiveness of Chinese vaccines on the latest variants and the low proportion of people elderly vaccinated. A radical change in strategy seems unimaginable, both the regime hammering since 2020 and the Chinese approach, which has succeeded in containing the number of victims, demonstrates the superiority of the communist system compared to the West and in particular to the American rival. On the other hand, if he does not let go, the anger, which has spread in several social classes, could increase.

One thing is certain, the “Red Emperor” is not the type to let attacks against him go unpunished. The most likely is that he will adopt a strategy similar to that applied in Hong Kong, after the huge pro-democracy demonstrations of 2019. Armies of censors have already been mobilized to erase all traces of protests on social networks and prevent that the movement coordinates and expands. A formidable security device has also been deployed in several major cities of the country to nip in the bud any attempt to relaunch the disputes.

The regime will also no doubt methodically arrest the leaders of the movement – several arrests have already taken place – to strike a chord and put pressure on others. “They will try to silence all those who have criticized the Party and Xi Jinping, while showing some understanding for the anti zero Covid protesters. Explaining that, little by little, China will relax the measurements”, predicts Jean-Pierre Cabestan, associate researcher at Asia Centre. The power has, for the time being, announced on November 29 that it would “accelerate” the vaccination campaign for the elderly.

An effective vaccine, Xi Jinping’s only salvation

In reality, the only solution for Xi Jinping would be to acquire a more efficient messenger RNA vaccine – which he failed to develop – for this operation. “The continuation of confinements is not tenable, estimates Willy Lam, professor at the University of Hong Kong. But it will be difficult to persuade Xi Jinping to use foreign vaccines. For him, that would mean losing face and starting national pride.” The regime is trapped by its own anti-Western propaganda.

The balance of power is so disproportionate between a sprawling apparatus of repression and a closely watched population that the movement could find it difficult to hold out over time. Even if he manages to stifle this protest, the all-powerful Chinese leader, who still glorified his “zero Covid” policy last month, will however have seen his reputation tarnished. A word was released, in this month of November, and it will not be possible to gag the population forever.