This is not a guarantee of final victory, but a good omen for the rest of the course. If France ensures the first place against Tunisia, Wednesday, November 30 at 4 p.m., it would statistically ensure a promising course.
Indeed, since 1994 and the introduction of the current format (32 teams divided into eight groups of four), the first of the group qualifies for the quarter-finals in 80.4% of cases (45 qualifications out of 56 possible). In 1994 and 2014, the majors of their group even made a splash in the round of 16.
Is it the effect of an intrinsic superiority, of the confidence garnered, or of an easier course (the round of 16 opposes them to the second group, reputed to be weaker)? Still, the place in the group stage often determines success in the tournament.
More generally, 24 of the last 28 semi-finalists (i.e. 85.7%) and 13 of the last 14 finalists (i.e. 92.9%) thus emerged first from their pool (France in 2006, topped in pool by Switzerland before reaching the final, is an exception). Better: the final winner of the competition has always been a group first. This was the case for Brazil in 1994 and 2002, France in 1998 and 2018, Italy in 2006, Spain in 2010 and Germany in 2014.
However, beware of overconfidence. Nigeria and Romania in 1998; Mexico, Denmark, Sweden and Japan in 2002; Switzerland and Spain in 2006; the United States in 2010 or Spain and Colombia in 2018 can testify to this: it is possible to arrive at the top of your mini-championship at four and take the door from the round of 16, first elimination match direct.