The convulsed Peruvian politics will have an explosive week starting this Monday, from which, potentially, a president could even emerge to replace Pedro Castillo, against whom a vacancy motion will be voted (removal) in Congress.
Cross rumors of coup attemptsall without evidence, had been circulating intensely since Saturday, following the resignation of Defense Minister Daniel Barragán, about whose role in the situation there are contradictory speculations.
“I ratify my commitment to democracy, the rule of law and the Constitution, and I reject deeply that my government is plotting a shutdown of Congress to avoid a vacancy,” Castillo wrote on Twitter to counter such speculation.
Castillo, a left-wing rural professor without a political party, will have to appear before Congress on Wednesday to defend himself in a process that seeks to remove him for “permanent moral incapacity”.
still no votes
The 53-year-old president tried to frustrate the session by arguing that the motion was “incomplete,” but Congress, controlled by three radical right-wing parties, rejected that attitude and insisted on the presentation, which will precede a vote which could happen immediately afterwards.
If 87 of the 130 congressmen vote for the vacancy, Castillo will have to leave his place to the vice president, Dina Boluartewhose tenure as head of state could also be brief: a process is underway to suspend her from holding public office.
In that second hypothetical scenario, the fall of Boluarte, the President of Congress would go to the Government Palace, José Williams, retired Army general who is a member of Avanza Paísone of the three right-wing parties that lead the offensive from the legislative body.
The case of the vice president will be seen precisely tomorrow, when an opinion on her situation will be discussed. The first in line of succession wants to be suspended, by her opponents, for having continued as president of a private club when she was minister.
Until today it was difficult to determine if 87 votes will be reached: “I would like there to be, but, honestly, I have my doubts“, admitted the constitutionalist Domingo García Belaunde, an active adviser in Congress to the hard-right forces that seek the departure of the president.
The keyword will be the 37 congressmen who were elected last year by Castillo’s then party, the Marxist-Leninist Peru Libre (PL), and who are now scattered in four groupssome of them critical of government management.
The doubts settled after four of those congressmen, including Waldemar Cerrón, the most visible face of PL in Congress, signed the motion of censure, although one of them, Flavio Cruz, immediately clarified that that does not mean that he will say “yes” at the time of the vote.
If what was the ruling party remains in the “no”, along with the five congressmen from the left party Juntos por el Perú and other possible allies, it will be mathematically impossible for the motion to prosperwith what would be the third time that an attempt in that way failed.
In this context, the press talks about supposed negotiations between Castillo and what was his bench and even points out that the president is willing to sacrifice, as a piece in exchange for support, to his ministerial chief of staff, Betssy Cháveza former PL militant who not only has strong disputes with the right, but also with his former colleagues.
Suspension?
Within this framework, Barragán’s resignation from the Ministry of Defense for “strictly personal reasons” has made Peru this weekend a pot of speculation, in which the words “coup d’état” resonate, without the situation being clear.
Two former heads of the Joint Command of the Armed Forces, Jorge Montoya and José Cueto, now congressmen from the ultra-conservative Renovación Popular party, They affirmed that there were explorations of the Government among the military to force the institutional situation, which Barragán allegedly opposed.
On the contrary, other press versions indicate, also without evidence, that the resigning, a retired Air Force officer close to the ultranationalist leader Antauro Humala, he was favorable to tougher outings.
If Castillo were to overcome a vacancy process again, Congress prepares more political ammunition to shoot him, of which the first, which has already taken steps in the Constitution Commission, would be the possibility of suspending it in the context of the complaints against him.
A) Yes, 66 votes, a more clearly achievable figure, would be enough to suspend the president for a specified period while legal proceedings are in progress.
The apparently strongest complaint, filed by the Prosecutor’s Office for alleged corruption, clashes with the fact that, by Constitution, a sitting president can only be prosecuted for treason or obstruction of elections. Opponents seek to jump that fence through constitutional interpretations.
“Attempting shortcuts that involve interpretations of the Constitution to try to reach the same objective, but generating very serious tensions in our democratic order, it could be very bad for democracy and the future of the country’s governability,” warned the general secretary of the civil organization Transparencia, Iván Lanegra.
Several analysts, including opponents, have alerted about some popular reaction in the event that congressmen violate procedures. According to the polls, although Castillo barely borders 30% of popular approval, that triples the figures of a Legislative that does not reach 10% support.
The situation would be potentially complicated, according to analysts such as Carlos Monge, if the congressmen intend to remove Castillo, but remain in office until the end of the term in 2026.
For now, an opinion that seeks to anticipate the general elections for 2023 passed the filter of the Constitution Commission this week.
These elections, according to the polls, could be the solution with the greatest popular acceptance, although many analysts, such as Laura Arroyo, have anticipated that with the current political class it is delusional to think that there is an improvement.
Castillo has been in the crosshairs of the opposition since he took office in July 2021, but now it seems his most difficult moment. Boluarte, who at some point said that she would not assume the presidency in the event of a vacancy, is now silent and distanced from the president.
Telam Agency
PB