Soaring energy and food prices since the war in Ukraine, household consumption at half mast, industrial production down… The National Institute of Statistics predicts a 0.2% contraction in gross domestic product ( GDP) in the fourth quarter, which it had seen so far sluggish.
But if it were to fold in this gloomy context, economic activity would escape recession, defined as two consecutive quarters in the red, thanks to an expected slight rebound to 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 and then to 0.3% at the second.
With regard to 2022, “it would be a decline in the fourth quarter but not a break”, estimated Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation department of INSEE.
An inflation peak of 7% over one year at the start of 2023. Energy prices, the rise in which has spread to production and food prices, will continue to fuel inflation, with the planned increase in regulated gas and electricity tariffs and the end of the general the pump in 2023. After 6.6% expected at the end of the year, inflation should reach a peak of 7% over one year in January and February, then fall to 5.5% in June, still penalizing for the portfolio Household.
Purchasing power is holding up at the end of the year. Household purchasing power should hold up at the end of the year (+0.7% per “consumption unit” taking into account the composition of households), supported by the government aid schemes in terms of energy or measures such as the abolition of the audiovisual license fee. It would then dip in the first half.
Growth forecast lowered for 2022 to +2.5%. INSEE has revised its growth forecast for the whole of 2022 down slightly, to 2.5% (compared to 2.6% previously), i.e. 0.2 points less than that of the government – and a marked slowdown by compared to 2021, a euphoric year of post-Covid recovery (+6.8%).
A very slight rebound in growth in 2023. The government is counting on economic growth of 1% in 2023, a scenario deemed too optimistic by many economic institutes. economic activity would escape recession, defined as two consecutive quarters in the red, thanks to an expected slight rebound to 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 and then to 0.3% in the second.
GDP is expected to contract 0.2% in the fourth quarter. France’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, penalized in particular by sluggish household consumption. France should do well compared to Germany, Europe’s leading economy where the Ifo economic institute has said it expects a recession – limited to a decline of 0.1% of GDP – during the winter . These forecasts are however subject to many risks, in particular the development of the war in Ukraine, the health situation in China and the impact of the monetary tightening initiated by the central banks, warned INSEE.