Jonathan Zindel, Flash 90
Netanyahu’s war against the justice system did not prepare him for a situation where he would be the winner. Now, Netanyahu can move the enhancement clause, cancel the reason for reasonableness and Shad knows what other laws.
But Netanyahu hesitates. He knew how to fight, but he doesn’t know what to do now that he finally has a coalition of the extreme right. 64 fingers that are all bruised for changes in the justice system.
I had the opportunity to speak with a number of senior Likud officials before the elections. When I asked them if they believe that Netanyahu will indeed make changes to the justice system after defending it for years, they told me yes. “Netanyahu has changed,” they told me. “Now you can trust him.”
This week I spoke with one of them, and reminded him of the conversation. This time he was less sure that Netanyahu would allow substantial changes to be made in the judicial system. The Ben Gabir Law, the Deri Law and the Smotrich Law, which were intended to establish the government, will pass – but later, God is great.
Netanyahu is looking for support from retired supreme judges
Netanyahu is thinking about the legacy he will leave. He does not want to be denounced by half the people as the one who destroyed Israeli democracy, but he must pass a clause of overcoming – even though he himself does not want it.
It is enough to see the victory speech he gave on the night of the elections, in which the judicial system was not mentioned even a word, to understand how much Netanyahu is not really interested in reforms in the judicial system. But in the current situation, Netanyahu’s coalition partners will not let him just like that not pass the passage of the overcoming clause. Netanyahu also needs to appoint an effective justice minister who will please Likud voters.
So Netanyahu, like Netanyahu, is acting with the well-known tactic: the legislation of the surrogacy clause will be postponed. Currently for the summer session, and maybe even the postponement will lead to another postponement after which there will probably be another postponement.
It is not clear how much the coalition partners will allow Netanyahu these postponements, but if the High Court of Justice cooperates and does not reject the laws for establishing the government and the conscription law – then the sense of obligation of the future coalition to pass the passage of the enhancement clause will gradually disappear.
But, in case Netanyahu is obliged to pass the override clause, he wants the backing of the former Supreme Court judges. He conducts conversations with them through secret channels, which even senior Likud officials do not know about for sure.
With the backing of the judges, no one will be able to say that Netanyahu is destroying democracy – after all, the Supreme Court judges themselves supported the change that allows the Knesset to overcome High Court rulings.
Retired senior judge of the Supreme Court, Judge Aharon Barak (Miriam Elster/Flash 90)
It appears: Netanyahu will not allow the passing of a superseding clause with a majority of 61
Supreme Court Justices, retired and current, are not stupid. They know that an enhancement clause without their intervention will probably pass, and the right thing right now is to work with Netanyahu on a softened formula that will limit the damage to the Supreme Court’s rulings.
Because of this, we will probably not see in this Knesset an overriding ruling with a majority of 61 as is being talked about on the right, and more Knesset members will be needed to overcome the rulings of the Supreme Court.
It is possible that an override clause with a greater majority than 61 will not pass. There are various elements in the emerging coalition that are opposed to any increase in the number of Knesset members required for the supersession clause, with the view that only with a majority of 61 will it be possible to truly change the Supreme Court. From the point of view of the legal system, this is an excellent situation, preferably without an overriding clause at all.
The postponement of the enhancement clause and the increase in the number of Knesset members required to activate it, is just one campaign of the Supreme Court judges against Netanyahu. At the moment it can be said that it is being conducted as the parties want.
Simcha Rothman, archive (Photo: Sharia Diamant, Flash 90)
There are two people who are capable of changing the justice system
At the moment, it has not yet been decided definitively who will be the next Minister of Justice. As far as the senior members of the judiciary are concerned, in the whole Knesset there are two people who can really make a change in the system and know how to make it happen: Yariv Levin and Simcha Rothman.
The judicial system does not like the fact that Simcha Rothman will be the chairman of the Constitution Committee, but thank God that he will not be the Minister of Justice. If Yariv Levin becomes the next minister, he will at least be subordinate and attentive to Netanyahu.
But the system does not build on the submission and listening of Levin’s rival to Netanyahu. Levin, a lawyer by profession, is a dangerous adversary to the judicial system and it is better for him to remain in the Knesset Speaker’s office.
My uncle Amsalam. The next minister of justice? (Hadas Proosh, Flash 90)
The solution: a minister against me who will not make changes to the judicial system
so what are we doing? How do you appoint a person to the position of Minister of Justice who will please Likud voters and still not endanger the justice system? The answer is two words: Dodi Amsalam.
From the point of view of senior officials in the justice system, Dodi Amsalem is an excellent solution. There will be some shouting, blunt statements, some media noise – but in practice zero changes in the judicial system. And even if there are changes, they will be minor and will not really change the face of the system.
In order to change the legal system, you need knowledge and ability. The Knesset has one hundred and twenty members, but as mentioned, for senior positions in the system, there are only two with the knowledge and ability to bring about real change in the system. And what can be done, Dodi Amsalem is not one of them.
However, Amsalem announced that the only position in the government he is interested in is the Minister of Justice. Amsalem believes that he is the only one who can pass the reforms in the judicial system, because the others do not have the courage required to carry out the reforms.
From Netanyahu’s point of view, even such a situation in which Amsalem will be able to make changes in the judicial system is fine. He will always be able to say that Islam is not disciplined to him, and cluck his tongue in front of those who oppose changes in the judicial system.
Rival Levin. Will he agree to remain the chairman of the Knesset? (Yonathan Zindel, Flash 90)
The big question: Will Yariv Levin decide to stay in the Knesset?
The Supreme Court is concerned about the other proposals to change the face of the judicial system. The proposal by Yariv Levin to lower the retirement age of the judges – which would actually lead to the impeachment of President Ester Hayut, Vice President Uzi Fogelman, Judge Alex Stein and Judge Anat Baron – is particularly worrying.
Netanyahu and the senior members of the justice system know that there will be changes in the justice system. Netanyahu fought, and planned to keep fighting. He didn’t know he would win. So the laws of Deri, Smotrich and Ben Gvir will pass. It is also possible that the renewed conscription law will pass the High Court of Justice test. The overreach clause that is currently on hold, and will probably not pass with a majority of 61, reassures the senior officials of the system.
Now the big question is whether Levin’s opponent will agree to stay in the office of the Speaker of the Knesset. From the point of view of the senior members of the judiciary, in a situation where Netanyahu has a coalition of 64 members, if Levin remains in the Knesset and Dodi Amsalem is appointed Minister of Justice, they have turned Netanyahu’s victory into their victory.
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