Herd immunity will be difficult to achieve even with a large vaccination campaign (we have explained this WHO), but Israel shows us how it could 55% of vaccinated people are enough to reopen.

Covid vaccines in Israel

Israel is a laboratory where the future of the pandemic is measured: despite the differences between country and country, as if, looking at its example, we could move the calendar forward. Data published by the Israeli Ministry of Health shows that 4,649,654 people have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (two doses), more than half of the Israeli population, and about 550,000 received the first dose. When the vaccinations began, Israel was in the midst of an epidemic wave, further aggravated by the massive spread of the English variant (more contagious and more lethal). So far, since the peak in mid-January, the results have been: 85% fewer daily deaths, 72% fewer daily critical illnesses, 86% fewer daily cases.


Rt to 0.6: the epidemic goes out

The reproduction rate (R number), which indicates the number of people each coronavirus patient infects on average without any means of protection, when the pandemic broke out and Israel had no restrictions, ranged between 2 and 3. And when the British variant arrived in the country before restrictions and vaccines, it ranged between 4 and 5. Currently, she explains in the newspaper Haaretz Dvir Aran, principal investigator of a biomedical data science laboratory at Technionil, l’Rt a 0,6 and when it drops below 1 it means a 65% drop in cases per week: the epidemic dies down. The expert says: Even if people stop wearing masks and go back to football stadiums, with this vaccination rate the R-number will only increase to a maximum of 0.8 percent.

Covid in Israel: the situation, the vaccines, the progress of the epidemic

The return to normal

The help of vaccines not only in hospital wards (with the prevention of deaths and serious cases), but also concerns the spread of the infection. on Monday the news that comes from a study by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: il Pfizer vaccine (also Moderna) used in Israel reduces transmission by 90 percent of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In practice, mRNA vaccines clear the contagiousness of the virus. This is why even only 55% of the vaccinated population allows reopening.

The Covid situation in Israel

In Israel almost everything as before and the cases are steadily decreasing. Even if herd immunity has not been achieved, mass immunity has been achieved which allows for pandemic control and a return to a normal life. If all over 40s were vaccinated in other countries as well, an immunity of about 50 percent would be achieved (more, where the population was older). Although it is still far from herd immunity (for which it serves about 70-80% of the population) this number sufficient to block transmission and defend those at risk with indirect protection, whereby unvaccinated people would be defended because vaccinations and restrictions prevent the spread of the virus.

March 30, 2021 (change March 30, 2021 | 13:18)

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