A remote mountain enclave in the South Caucasus, NagorNu-Karabach, sending a cold greeting to the Israelis. Although they are rarely interested in her, she offers them associations and lessons. There, on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, war returned and flared up last week between bitter enemies.
Its local roots can be traced back to the early years of the 20th century, but it draws its grim inspiration from the days of World War I, when the Turks and Kurds of Anatolia put a murderous end to 2,500 years of Armenian presence. Motifs of deep hatred and blood revenge are drawn throughout 125 years and more of bad neighborliness between Turks and Armenians.
The Caucasian incarnation of this enmity erupted in the last days of the Soviet Union, more than 30 years ago. He touched upon the status of a small autonomous region inhabited by Armenians, within Azerbaijan.
When the Soviet Union began to collapse, relations between Azeris and Armenians easily reached a boiling point. A massacre of Armenians in two large cities in Azerbaijan caused mass outrage. But the Armenians of Karabakh finished saying to stay. For their protection, volunteers were mobilized from all over the great Armenian diaspora, from Lebanon to Canada to California.
War finally broke out. The Armenians made an effort. They first took over the entire region, and expelled its Azeri inhabitants (about a third of the population). In 1994, they extended their rule to the areas surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, which were about a fifth of the territory of Azerbaijan.
National compensation for the catastrophe
In my eyes I saw that war, between 1991 and 1996. The military talents of the Armenians amazed the observers. Motivation and efficient organization compensated them for their numerical and material inferiority. I remember a long conversation with an Armenian volunteer from Lebanon in the city of Shusha, which the Armenians had just captured and emptied of its Azeri inhabitants. The contents of her houses were scattered in the streets. The volunteer (“Fidai”. This is what the Christian Armenians called their fighters, influenced by their Middle Eastern history) told me that Karabakh is only the beginning. He and his friends intended to bring about a national revolution in Armenia itself.
Armenians in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, spoke with a mixture of admiration and fear about the heroes of Karabakh. The president’s adviser on national security told me that his government does not dare to cool down the fighting spirit of the Karabakhs, because if it does so “they will occupy Yerevan, and take all the best apartments in the center of the city.” In a certain sense, Nagorno-Karabakh did take over Armenia in the following years. It left a deep radical mark on the state of mind of the Armenians, and it gave them an unprecedented, and also dawnless, confidence in their power.
Under the influence of radicalization, they refused to look at a map, or read history. I mean, they definitely read history. Every Armenian reads it, and groans ass rises. The extermination of the Armenian people in Anatolia is a central motif in the life of Armenia and the main justification for its existence. The rescue of Karabakh became a national compensation for the catastrophe of 1915.
Following their victory in 1994, the Armenians fell in love with the status quo. Instead of using the territorial dowry as a pledge for a political settlement, they busied themselves in discovering the ruins of ancient churches and expropriating territories that had previously been densely populated by Azars. They ignored the growing strength of Azerbaijan. She got rich, thanks to the oil; And she began to strengthen herself militarily with the help of her senior sister Turkey and with the help of, who-if-not, Israel.
Israeli weapons and Israeli advice were generously offered (and generously paid for). The sky was filled with Israeli drones, alongside Turkish drones. The press was filled with reports of a discreet alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan against Iran, which was very beneficial to both of its partners, and very damaging to the Islamic Republic. Ironically, the latter adopted Christian Armenia as an ally against Shiite Azerbaijan.
The future will be very Turkish
A quarter of a century after their defeat in the previous war, the Azeris embarked on a new war. The complacent Armenians were caught in their spoils. They suffered a terrible defeat in 2020, and had it not been for their military alliance with Russia, the Azeris could have returned and occupied every square meter of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Last week the fire started again. The Azeris first directed it towards Armenia itself. They even crossed the border at several points. It is probably not a coincidence that they did so while Russia is licking its wounds in Ukraine.
The Azerbaijanis now have far-reaching plans: not only to regain all the territories they lost, but to create an extra-territorial connection with Turkey, through Armenia. Armenia will probably be allowed to add and exist as a weak satellite in a wide-ranging Turkish sphere of influence, from the Mediterranean to Central Asia. The Prime Minister of Armenia admitted last week the defeat of his country.
Sticking to the status quo and the belief in the eternity of their military superiority severed the connection between the Armenians and reality. The differences between Armenia and Israel are evident and understandable, but there is always a reason to learn lessons from other realities; At least from their dynamics, if not from all their details.
This is not the only reason to review your case. Israel decided, for good and bad reasons, to prefer its beneficial relationship with Azerbaijan over natural sympathy for Armenia. The Armenians, early victims of genocide in the 20th century, are now standing on an even smaller scale due to a military attack, which Israeli weapons enabled.
Better to be wary of shrugging shoulders and indifference. It is impossible to shake a policy without any moral doubt. What will happen to the Armenians a century after the extermination of their people is not an abstract question. It is permissible to invest some degree of compassion and goodwill in it.
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