a changing political landscape

Essential reminder: as we specified five years earlier the day after the first round of the presidential election, the map of results by constituency does not in any way constitute a projection of the first round of the upcoming legislative elections. This is a photograph of the candidates who came out on top in the 566 metropolitan and overseas constituencies, for lack of detailed results in the eleven constituencies of French people living abroad.

First observation: in these 566 constituencies, Emmanuel Macron came first in 256 of them, Marine Le Pen in 206 and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 104. The right, represented by Valérie Pécresse, has disappeared from the landscape. By way of comparison, in 2017, Mr. Macron emerged victorious in the first round in 231 constituencies, the candidate of the National Rally (RN) in 216, the representative of La France insoumise (LFI) in 67 and the candidate of the right, François Fillon, in 52 constituencies.

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If we superimpose the map of 2022 on that of 2017, the same areas of strength emerge – with rare exceptions, given the erasure of the Republican right. The other consequence of this tripartition is that the candidates who come out on top increase their score. Thus, while, in 2017, Mr. Macron had won more than 30% of the votes cast in 52 constituencies, this time he exceeded this threshold in 152, even crossing the 40% mark in 14 of them.

He obtains his best scores in the 14^e constituency of Paris, which covers part of the 16^e district (46.66%), the 9^e Hauts-de-Seine, Boulogne-Billancourt (46.60%) and the 4^e of Paris, parts of the 16^e and 17^e boroughs (45.91%). Note that the 1^re constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes, whose deputy is Eric Ciotti, who came second in the primary of the Les Républicains (LR) party and who had announced that in the event of a second round between Emmanuel Macron and Eric Zemmour he would vote for the latter, placed in the lead… Mr. Macron.

Limited transfer movements

M^me Le Pen, who had obtained more than 30% in 2017 in 83 constituencies, repeats this performance in 120, exceeding 40% in 12 of them. The best results of the far-right candidate are in the 10^e constituency of Pas-de-Calais, Bruay-la-Buissière (47.77%), the 2^e of Mayotte (46.84%), the 12^e du Pas-de-Calais, Liévin (46.16%) and the 11^e Pas-de-Calais, Hénin-Beaumont (45.15%).

Mr. Mélenchon’s scores are even more breathtaking. Arrived at the top in 104 constituencies, it collects more than 30% in 87 of them. Better, he obtains more than 60% in the 2^e Seine-Saint-Denis, which covers Pierrefitte-sur-Seine and northern Saint-Denis (61.61%), and in the 1^re Guadeloupe, Les Abymes, Pointe-à-Pitre (61.05%). Its score exceeds 50% in 19 constituencies, including 8 in the overseas territories and 6 in Seine-Saint-Denis, it is more than 40% in 20 other constituencies.

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