MAINTENANCE – The Bulgarian economist, dean of Insead, analyzes the situation and draws lessons from the experience of Singapore, where he lives.
The Bulgarian economist has been the dean of the Insead management school for ten years.
LE FIGARO. – Beyond the manifestations of discontent and the relaxation of the “zero Covid” policyhow do you see China’s medium-term trajectory?
Ilian MIHOV. – I think that unlike the countries of Eastern Europe – like Bulgaria, where I lived in 1989 – whose regimes were fragile, the Chinese government remains in a position of strength. This does not prevent there from being a deep discontent in China. The country is caught in the “middle income trap”, which I described in 2009 in the Harvard Business Review. When a country reaches a certain level of per capita income, between 15,000 and 20,000 dollars, unless it reforms itself deeply – regulations, rule of law, effective governance – it can no longer grow. Or it may collapse. There are examples in history: Argentina in the 1960s, Brazil, the USSR in a sense, in…
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