A new study warns that nearly half of the glaciers around the world may disappear completely by the end of this century – even if humanity succeeds in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement to stop global warming. The study published in the journal “Science” used advanced models to predict the changes in the 215,000 glaciers on Earth by the year 2100, in a range of scenarios ranging from a warming of 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era to an increase of 4 degrees.
The results showed that if the temperature reaches the target of 1.5 degrees set in the Paris Agreement – and which humanity is currently not meeting – 49% of the glaciers will disappear completely, with at least half of the disappearance occurring before the middle of the 21st century, and because of this the global sea level will rise by 90 mm If the increase in temperatures reaches 4 degrees, 83% of all glaciers will disappear and they will lose 41% of their mass – with the result being an increase of 154 mm in sea level. The predictions are 23% higher than the models published so far.
“A key finding showed that the loss of mass was linear in relation to the increase in temperature, therefore any reduction in the increase in temperature will significantly reduce the loss of mass of the glaciers and their contribution to the rise in sea level,” noted the leader of the study, Dr. Anthony Rauns from Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania.