A new Ukrainian success at Lyman?

After the victory in the Kharkiv region during the second week of September, Ukrainian operations continued at an apparently slower pace in the northeast of the country. But, since September 27, it seems that they are bearing fruit.

In recent days, in fact, the news has circulated that several localities had been taken over by the Ukrainians east of Kharkiv, in the direction of the Luhansk region. The Daily Online Ukrainian Truth Thus quotes Oleh Syniehoubov, the head of the military administration of the Kharkiv region, who declares: “About 6% of the territory of our region is still temporarily occupied.”

“The enemy does not retreat”

In particular, on September 26, the authorities announced the liberation of the large settlement of Kupyansk-Vouzloviy, “one of the most important logistics and railway nodes for Russians in the Kharkiv region”. Its reconquest deals a serious blow to the Russian defensive system in the region. But, concedes Syniehoubov:

“Every meter of Ukrainian territory is liberated with difficulty, because the enemy does not retreat, it constantly tries to regroup and deploy its reserves.”

Encirclement at Lyman

At the same time, reports the news site Novynarnia, the Ukrainian army has seized Novoselivka, further south, which threatens the Russian positions around the town of Lyman, in the oblast of Donetsk, held by the Russians since the end of May.

According to Reserve Colonel Roman Svitan, a Ukrainian military expert interviewed by the television channel 24, “Lyman is a town just begging to be surrounded, when you look at the layout on the battle map.”

“Enemy military on the ground are potential prisoners, or dead.” – Roman Svitan, Ukrainian military expert.

Situation in Ukraine as of September 26, 2022. Thierry Gauthé/International Mail

South, he explains, Lyman is bordered by the Siverskiy Donets, and on the right bank of this river we have a strong grouping.” The encirclement would be about to be achieved “since the night of September 27 to 28”. Most “no one is going to launch a frontal assault on the city, even if it is the scene of sporadic clashes”. “However, summarizes Svitan, soon enough, or Lyman will be surrounded, or the Russians will flee on their own.”

A defeat of the Kremlin troops in Lyman would be an opportunity for the Ukrainians to seize a significant amount of equipment, since the city served as a rear base for Russian operations in the Donbass.

The importance of “captured” Russian material

As the news site points out Obozrevatel, supporting figures, the captured equipment plays a crucial role in the re-equipment of the Ukrainian army. “Since the start of the conflict, Ukrainian forces have taken more equipment from the Russians than they have received from the larger partner countries. According to confirmed data, the Ukrainian defenders recovered from the occupier almost 400 tanks, 700 armored vehicles and 170 artillery systems. By comparison, the West delivered to kyiv about 370 tanks, nearly 1,600 armored vehicles and around 480 artillery systems.

The weekly Dzerkalo Tyjnia points out, however, that, worried about Ukrainian progress, “Russia reinforces its units to repel Ukrainian forces in the Luhansk region”. “Russia has started to establish significant defenses north of the front line in the Luhansk region, because in fact the advance of the Ukrainian army now endangers the units of this region where the attack took place. ‘vote’ on joining the Russian Federation.”

Victory will never be final

A large part of these reinforcements is made up of the first “mobiki”, nickname given to Russian citizens hastily mobilized by Moscow since September 21. Troops of dubious value, believes Obozrevatel : “The level of readiness, equipment and morale of the soldiers of the army of the aggressor country, called up within the framework of the ‘partial mobilization’ proclaimed by the Russian Federation, is extremely low. Witness the first cases of capture of Russian soldiers from the Rostov region of Russia who fled their units.”

Always sober, General Valeri Zaloujny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, refuses to be intoxicated by the successes achieved by his forces. In an interview given to Time American and taken up in part by the newspaper Oukraina Molodait calculates that a “fifth of the Russian army has already been destroyed in Ukraine”, but he warns: “Knowing that I know the Russians closely, our victory will not be final. Our victory will give us the opportunity to breathe and prepare for the next war.”

Et Oukraina Moloda to insist:

“The Russian bear, after its defeat in Ukraine, will heal its wounds, but it will not give up trying to occupy Ukraine.”

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