2023-09-05 11:38:52
The specter of a second term for him Donald Trump strikes terror into US allies and partners.
His departure from the presidency of the USA it was interpreted by many allies and partners as a “return to normalcy” at the level of diplomatic and trade relations.
The 77-year-old real estate mogul treats trade deficits as “losses” that lead to extracting wealth for benefit of her enemies America and is already threatening to impose blanket tariffs of 10% on imports if he wins next year’s election.
The first examples of his approach, in terms of trade with the allies, were given by 2018when it had imposed tariffs on imports steel and aluminum that came from European Union countries.
The Biden administration proceeded to negotiations with Brussels on the issue and finally to a compromise. However, the tariffs will be reinstated if no definitive solution is found by October 31.
The threat of a new tariff war, which would affect the trade of many products, such as whiskey for example, returns.
The pressure is increasing
The two sides could agree to continue negotiations. However, the risk of a Trump victory in 2024; increases the pressure for a deal – even if it means that the E.U. he will have to make concessions.
“It’s on everyone’s mind: What if the election goes the wrong way?” said an EU trade diplomat cited by POLITICO.
A lawyer for corporate clients emphasized that the EU officials and business bosses are “frightening” at the thought of a Trump comeback.
Concerns are heightened based on recent poll findings that 75% of respondents think Joe Biden is too old to run for US presidency.
The – now 77-year-old – former president and current candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, Trumpgarners better ratings compared to the Democratic candidate.
More specifically, only 47% of respondents view Trump as too old to run for the presidency.
In addition to the steel dispute, Brussels and Washington are also negotiating a crucial deal on minerals.
Such an agreement would allow companies to mining and chemicals of the EU to sell their products to electric vehicle battery manufacturers in the US, without a “haircut” of tax credits under the US Inflation Reduction Act.
Trade war
Trump is far ahead of his rivals in the race for the nomination Republicans ahead of his presidential election November of 2024despite facing a number of charges, including one of trying to overturn his 2020 defeat.
His threat to impose a 10% tariff – or “tax” – on all imports if he returns to White House has already caused reactions. Allies and partners warn that such a step would trigger an “all-out trade war”.
In a recent letter to Wall Street JournalTrump, responding to his critics, including the newspaper’s editorial board, said: “Even after being proven spectacularly dead wrong in all of their previous predictions about my historically successful trade policies, the editorial’s globalist hardliners still haven’t gotten their lesson.”
Whether Trump will win remains unknown. However, any future president, coming from the republican party, it would probably lead to changes in US relations with the EU, as well as in Washington’s attitude towards Ukraine.
Aggravation of confrontations
Some speak of an imminent turn in all matters. From military support to Ukraineresisting her war of Russia for 18 months, until the escalation of the ongoing geopolitical confrontation with China.
Especially in the major issue of Ukraine, both De Sandys as well as Ramaswamyhis main challengers for the nomination, are broadly toeing the Trump line.
The former had recently spoken of “territorial differences” between Russia and Ukraine and advocated cutting military aid to Kiev. While Ramaswamy proposed a solution that would give Russia the territories it has conquered and keep Ukraine out of NATO, in exchange for Moscow ending its military alliance with Beijing.
With a Republican government, negotiations are very different, EU diplomats point out.
European officials hope that they will be able to advance the talks on him steelthe critical raw materials and other burning issues before the EU-US Summit scheduled for October, although no date has yet been set.
Climate change
In any case, not everyone is “prophesying” disaster for transatlantic trade relations under a Trump or Republican presidency. Some note that, under Biden, Washington has continued to “play hardball” and undermine his role World Trade Organization in the adjudication of disputes.
“The tone and the atmosphere would change, but, in essence, the transatlantic trade relationship would hardly be radically overturned under a Biden or Trump presidency,” emphasizes David Kleimana fellow at the Bruegel think tank based in Brussels.
It didn’t go all the way
In addition, international analysts emphasize that, although the Trump he implemented an unconventional foreign policy when he was president, he didn’t implement extreme choices.
He did not withdraw them United States by WTO nor from NATOdid not withdraw them US troops from the Pacific.
Although Foreign Affairs points out that under biden nato is stronger than everas well as that US relations with Pacific nations they are at the best level.
He concludes by underlining that “a new defeat for Trump in the 2024 elections would send a strong message that isolationist and populist trends in the United States are heading towards recession”.
However, many analysts believe that Trump’s trials are the only way to prevent him from winning the Republican primaries, and possibly from his second term in the White House.
Source: POLITICO, WSJ, Foreign Affairs
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