A developing coastal system will sweep across the eastern United States late this week, bringing widespread rain, strong winds, and the season’s first snowflakes to interior regions.
Low Pressure System Develops over Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Coast
A low pressure system will develop over the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday, Nov. 11, and strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday, Nov. 12, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Forecasters report that the main window for the storm runs from Thursday through Friday night.
Computer weather models diverge on the storm’s exact path. The American Global Forecast System favors an inland track that introduces milder Atlantic air and limits snow to higher elevations, while European and Canadian models push the storm farther offshore while pulling in colder air sooner, as reported by CBS News.
🥶❄️ A blast of cold air! A developing storm! Even snowflakes?! There's been a LOT of hype about the weather coming to the DC area later this week. So what's real, what's overblown and what should you actually expect? Yes, it's turning much colder. But the storm and snow…
AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham noted that a shifting weather pattern will bring a sharp turn toward cooler conditions later in the week following a relatively warm stretch from late October through early November across a majority of the Midwest and Northeast.
The National Weather Service notes that a deep dip in the jet stream, called a trough, will create a strong southward plunge across the East late in the week. National Weather Service meteorologist Liz Logan stated that a system resembling a nor’easter is making its way north, though its eventual track remains uncertain ahead of the end of the workweek.
Winter outlooks are basically lockstep stormy, but generally also warmish. There's still a sense of something big lurking in the shadows. New seasonal outlook from the European model hints at that potential https://t.co/F7bfN1O6pv
Paul Fitzsimmons, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly, N.J., forecast office, remarked that the system is not looking like a big snowstorm, but rather more in the way of rain with potentially some snow.
Snow Potential in Interior Regions
While major coastal cities expect primarily rain, colder interior elevations face a distinct chance of accumulating snow. In addition to the chill, a storm later this week can bring the potential for the first snowfall of the season for many,
said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Adam Douty, as noted by USA Today.
Weather.com meteorologist Rob Shackelford stated that by Thursday night, forecasters expect another area of low pressure to form off the Eastern Seaboard, bringing the first chances of snow across interior regions of the Northeast. Locations facing potential snowfall include Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, along with Syracuse and Binghamton, New York.
Mountainous terrain in the Poconos, Catskills, and Berkshires also carries a risk of snow accumulation. Rain could transition to wet snow in areas sitting above 3,000 feet—such as West Virginia’s Canaan Valley and western Maryland’s higher terrain of Garrett County—while northwestern winds channel colder air and the storm intensifies.
Northern New England mountains up through upstate New York and the Appalachians feature the most favorable conditions for accumulating snowfall.
In New York, higher elevations in central and eastern parts of the state could see measurable snowfall, while cities like Syracuse and Binghamton are among the locations that could experience their first snowflakes of the season. In New Jersey, northwestern areas and higher elevations present the best chance of seeing snow based on forecasts.
Coastal Rain and Limited Accumulation
Warm ground temperatures and marginal air masses mean that lower elevations and major metropolitan corridors along Interstate 95 will experience mostly rain. Outside of higher elevations, snow should struggle to accumulate,
according to forecasts cited by The Independent.
Dave Epstein, the Globe’s contributing meteorologist, noted that weather models require careful interpretation, stating it’s not always 100 percent right, but generally, you want to stick with what’s going to be mostly right,
as reported by The Boston Globe.
[Potential Late Week Storm] Dry & seasonable weather through the middle of the week outside of a brief spot shower possible Monday. Low pressure may bring a cold rain to many locations sometime late Thu-Fri… But some wet snow can not be ruled out especially in the high terrain. pic.twitter.com/igd5BfoN7O
Eastern Pennsylvania areas including the Lehigh Valley, Berks County, and the Philadelphia region face roughly a ten percent chance of seeing at least one inch of snow, based on Weather Prediction Center maps detailed by The Morning Call. Rainfall is currently favored for the Jersey Shore and the central and southern portions of New Jersey.
Temperature Plunge Across the East
Regardless of total snowfall accumulation, the departing storm will drag a deep trough in the jet stream across the eastern United States by Saturday, Nov. 14.
Outside of some isolated showers around the region today, expect dry conditions for much of the week along with seasonable temperatures. A possible late-week storm could bring rain for most of the region, though some wet snow can't be ruled out in higher elevations. pic.twitter.com/G5cpSHdOlx