2023-04-29 21:13:04
Paraguay, one of the few countries governed by the right in South America, goes to the polls this Sunday, April 30 to elect its president, as well as parliamentarians and governors. The Colorado Party, in power almost without interruption since 1947, faces a motley coalition, against a backdrop of corruption cases.
Conservative party hegemony challenged
In Latin America, the time has been, for several years, for alternation. The pandemic and its heavy consequences on local economies, as well as on public finances, have added to a feeling of frustration already present to oust the parties in power – in Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Brazil…
Will it be the same in Paraguay, where the Colorado Conservative Party has reigned for more than seven decades, with the exception of a left-wing parenthesis, from 2008 to 2013? The polls indicate a very tight election between its candidate, Santiago Pena, former finance minister, and the liberal Efrain Alegre, at the head of a broad coalition.
« It will be a close vote, even if the Colorado Party enjoys a structural advantage, especially in the countryside, where we vote conservative from generation to generation and where we know how to mobilize on election days.explains Damien Larrouqué, member of the Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean at Sciences Po. Even in the event of a defeat in the presidency, the Party will hold the Congress”.
Many corruption cases
Hegemonic, the party in power today suffers from the numerous corruption cases that have marred the last mandates, and in particular that of Horacio Cartes, head of state from 2013 to 2018 and current president of the party. In recent months, the United States has imposed sanctions on him, accusing him of corruption and links with “terrorist” groups.
In March, an investigation was finally opened by the Paraguayan justice, also targeting the current vice-president. ” But it is not certain that the Conservatives will be penalized electorally, relativizes Damien Larrouqué. First, because corruption is still often considered normal in Paraguay. Then because there can be a nationalist reflex, against the United States ».
Moreover, Efrain Alegre does not represent a very clear alternative. “ It is not, as we have seen in Chile for example, a left-wing coalition driven by social issues, continues the researcher. Efrain Alegre is also conservative on big issues, like abortion. His coalition is very motley, and his only reason for being is to try to bring down the conservatives ».
Another issue: China
In a continent that leans more and more to the left, this election will be closely watched. But also at the end of the world, because of the growing role of China in Latin America and the diplomatic consequences of this rise. Paraguay is indeed Taiwan’s last ally in South America, and one of the very last in Latin America, which recently saw Nicaragua or Honduras abandon the island in favor of Beijing.
But until when ? Because in Paraguay, one of the world’s leading producers of soybeans and a major player in the beef market, two products of which China is by far the main importer on the planet, many are tempted by a change of alliance.
This is in particular the proposal defended by Efrain Alegre, while his conservative opponent pleads for the status quo. He is also counting on this rapprochement to attract more Chinese investment in Paraguay and strengthen commercial ties with Beijing. A victory for Efrain Alegre on Sunday – the election is played over one round – would no doubt also be a victory for Beijing.
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