Where is the dollar rate going? Today the dollar is down by 1% and it is already established that when there are increases in Wall Street the dollar goes down – the reason: institutions hedge the increase in the dollar, which means they sell dollars and -or derivatives on the dollar. So they said that it is also related to the fact that there are entities that want to take the funds out of here – Einat Gaz from Papaya was the first to speak out in relation to this, but it is not a wave, and it is not certain that it is sweeping the high tech industry. It turns out that there are quite a few who think that what is happening here is not “the end of the world” and that the legal reform is not a disaster and will certainly not affect the economy.
So today the dollar is falling and overall it has been very volatile in the last month, jumping and falling again every few days. It is important to remember that the capital movements between Israel and the world are the ones that most affect the exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the shekel, and from this point of view we export more than we import, i.e. There are dollar to shekel conversions. Dollars are sold and shekels are bought. That means the dollar should apparently weaken over time relative to the shekel.
Dr. Ado Kalir, head of the risk management specialization at the Ono Academic College, thinks the opposite. “The dollar will end the year 2023 higher than now,” he claims, “We will experience a decrease in foreign investments in Israel. Such a decrease was expected regardless of the new government. So the implication is that the dollar is on the way up. I look at the cash flow. In recent years, a lot of money has flowed in, mainly into high-tech, but it is worth noting that it has also flowed into industry, investments, and the stock market.
“Pension funds in the US do not need more risky investments. When the interest rate was very, very low, then they went to dangerous places – stocks, venture capital funds and also outside the US to the US. If you search where the money of the venture capital funds comes from, including the infusion of funds into the Israeli market, you will see that it is these funds and now this money has disappeared.
“He disappeared because the pension funds invest in American bonds and receive 4-5%. So if they get 5% and in a corporate bond it’s even possible more, that’s certainly enough for them. Why do they need investments from us. That’s how they also lower the risk. Israel is a very small part of their allocation, but we have to understand that this is the trend. We have to remember that they entered For the country in three years, $30 billion more than we expected. It’s a gift to Omer, there are taxes on that, it’s $15 billion as a gift. It’s not smart to be finance minister during Lieberman’s time and reach a zero deficit when so much money comes in. We’ll see Smotrich do the This is when the money leaves Israel.”
And when the money goes out, the dollar is expected to rise, Aliba Kalir. He claims that “an exchange rate of NIS 3.7 to the dollar is absolutely possible. The increase in the dollar exchange rate is expected to affect inflation. While in the world inflation will be overcome because it is commodity and energy inflation, we can live in a situation where the rising dollar makes it difficult to curb inflation.”
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