a serious episode in Nagorno Karabakh that rewrites the maps of the South Caucasus

2023-09-21 00:21:32

The small war waged in a handful of hours by Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, which resulted in the total seizure of the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh, is a huge episode on the geopolitical board of the region. That enclave, historically called Artsakh by Armenia, has been the axis of centuries-old disputes between both peoples since the dictatorship of Josef Stalin, when the two countries were part of the Soviet Union, decided to hand it over to the Azeri nation.

Now that mandate is consummated passing over Moscow’s custody of that strategic space.

After two days of attacks, the region capitulated by agreeing to hand over its weapons; turn Armenians into a minority under Baku rule, the Azeri capital and the dissolution of civil and military authorities. The proposed dialogue, mediated by Moscow, is simply to discuss the format of the capitulation.

There would be a list of about 500 former officials of this “republic” of Artsakh recognized by no one, not even Armenia, who would be detained for processing in Azerbaijan.

Video

Azerbaijan launched a strong offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh on Tuesday and attacked Armenian military positions

More than a hundred Armenians died, according to sources in that town who dispute the official figure of 35 fatalities under the rain of missiles and drones that was the main heart of the offensive. The attack took place against the background of a blockade of food, medicines and supplies since last December, so the military vehicles that protected the place did not have fuel and in general the population was poorly nourished.

The most important fact about this episode is that it happens in uin the area of ​​direct Russian influencebut unable to avoid this outcome despite the containment forces it installed in the region three years ago, when Azeri troops took practically half of the disputed territory.

This failure by Russia is significant and ties into something we don’t know about the path of the war in Ukraine. Armenia, which sponsored the population of the enclave – although the controversial government of Nikol Pashinián has stood out for reducing the importance of this conflict -, It is a key partner of the mutual defense pact that Moscow structured and that Vladimir Putin defended as one of his major strategic pieces. Azerbaijan, a Turkic-speaking country and Turkey’s staunch ally, ignored Moscow and rewrote the maps.

Ankara, which has played as a mediator with Russia in the war in Ukraine, immediately supported the action of the autocratic regime of Ilham Alliev, which has now said that its country’s next step is Armenia, a country which he considers “part of his territory” in the same key that Putin raised with Ukraine by denying it its sovereignty. Serious signs that the fragile ropes that held that stage have come loose.