2023-09-26 03:55:00
The formation of a supercontinent in about 250 million years could end up causing a mass extinction like that of the dinosaurs, eliminating almost all mammals, including humans. The reason behind this would be the unprecedented heat and extreme conditions it would have, making it practically uninhabitable.
The research, published in the journal Nature Geoscience and led by the University of Bristol, presents the first climate models of the distant future made with supercomputers. The results demonstrate how Climate extremes will intensify dramatically as the world’s continents merge to form a hot (with temperatures between 40° and 70°), dry and largely uninhabitable supercontinent.
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According to scientists, in 250 million years all the continents of the Earth will have joined together to form a supercontinent known as Pangea Ultima. The Earth’s surface would have a kind of circular shape with an inland sea in the middle, which would be all that would remain of the Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, the surrounding Pacific Ocean would occupy most of the planet’s surface.
Pangea Ultima is just a possible projection of what Earth’s supercontinent could look like once the tectonic plates come together. Whatever the exact alignment, scientists are confident that Earth’s continents will slowly merge to form a hot, dry and largely uninhabitable mass.
Projection of what Pangea Ultima would be like and its temperatures.
The conclusions project how These high temperatures will increase progressively As the sun gets brighter, it emits more energy and warms the Earth. In addition to this, tectonic processes would also cause most frequent volcanic eruptions which would release enormous amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, which would further warm the planet.
Mammals, including humans, historically survived thanks to its ability to adjust to extreme weather conditionsespecially through adaptations such as fur and hibernation in the cold, as well as brief periods of hibernation in warm climates.
Although these species evolved to reduce their survival limit at cold temperatures, its tolerance to higher temperatures remained generally constant. For this reason, exposure to prolonged excessive heat would be much more difficult to overcome and climate simulations, if carried out, would eventually prove insurmountable.
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Dr Alexander Farnsworth, lead author and research associate at the University of Bristol, explained: “The new supercontinent would create a triple threat: the continentality effect, a hotter sun and more CO2 in the atmosphere, which would increase the heat in much of the planet.” “The result is a hostile environmentfor the most part, devoid of food and water sources for mammals,” he noted.
In that sense, he clarified that they would be “generalized temperatures of between 40 and 50 degrees Celsius, and even greater daily extremes, aggravated by high levels of humidity, would end up sealing our fate.” Under those conditions, “humans, along with many other species, would expire due to their inability to get rid of this heat through sweat, cooling their bodies.”
Research suggests the planet should remain largely habitable until this seismic landmass shift in the deep future, despite human-induced climate change and global warming being a growing cause of heat stress and mortality. in some regions. However, the results indicate that When the supercontinent forms, only between 8% and 16% of the Earth would be habitable for mammals.
State of habitability throughout the formation of Pangea Ultima.
Dr Eunice Lo, co-author of the study and climate change and health researcher at the University of Bristol, warned that “It is vitally important not to lose sight of our current climate crisisa result of human emissions of greenhouse gases.”
“While an uninhabitable planet is predicted within 250 million years, today we are already experiencing extreme heat harmful to human health“That’s why it’s crucial to reach net-zero emissions as soon as possible,” he argued.
The work methodology and the opinion of the scientific team
The international team of scientists applied climate models, simulating the temperature, wind, rain and humidity trends of the next supercontinent. To estimate the future level of CO2, the team used models of plate tectonic movement, ocean chemistry and biology to map CO2 inputs and outputs.
The calculations of future CO2 were led by Professor Benjamin Mills, from the University of Leeds. “We think CO2 could rise from about 400 parts per million (ppm) today to more than 600 ppm many millions of years from now,” he said. “Of course, this assumes that humans will stop burning fossil fuels, otherwise We’ll see those numbers much, much sooner.“he added.
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For his part, Dr. Farnsworth, also a visiting professor at the Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), at the Tibetan Plateau Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, acknowledged that “Prospects in the distant future seem very bleak”.
“Carbon dioxide levels could double current levels. In addition, the sun is expected to emit 2.5% more radiation and the supercontinent is mainly located in the hot and humid tropics, so much of the planet could face temperatures between 40 and 70 ° C“, accurate.
Furthermore, the research illustrates the importance of tectonics and continental layout when investigating planets beyond our solar system, called exoplanets. “This work also highlights that a world within the so-called ‘habitable zone’ of a solar system may not be the most hospitable to humans depending on whether the continents are spread out, like those today, or in one large supercontinent,” Farnsworth stressed.
MB / ED
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