Rome, March 18 (

The “Chinese side” of the Russian question. “If an American push led Russia to milder advice, without Vladimir Putin or even with Putin, not new to twists and turns, this would have a double effect: to isolate China, which relies on Russia for its security in the east, and also to reassure Germany. “He reasons with Francesco Sisci, professor of geopolitics at Luiss and at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, convinced that Russia is a “low-hanging fruit” and that “in the next six months, one year, we will see more pressure on both Russia and China“, which remains” the first American objective, but also of the Quad “, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue which sees Japan, Australia and India as protagonists together with the United States.

“What we see today in Russia – continues Sisci in the aftermath of Joe Biden’s statements on Putin – is a great weakness. In addition to the protests for Alexei Navalny, there is the country’s economic difficulty due to the low price of oil and this situation. of economic difficulty and social instability will last for the next few months “. It seems, he adds, “there is also dissatisfaction on the part of many Russian colonels who suffer from this situation of permanent confrontation with the West”, who would like a “better relationship”. And Biden’s United States, he reiterates in his analysis, “are pushing on Russia either to bring down Putin or to push him to milder advice,” a short to medium term goal, useful in itself but also for the other two reasons, to isolate China and help to reassure Germany “.

in the meantime China and the United States go to Anchorage, in Alaska, for the first face to face between the leaders of the two powers in the Biden era. “Already the place seems symbolic to me: that’s where Americans and Russians met during the Cold War, so willy-nilly there is this Cold War memory. The Cold War has begun again, I would say almost formally “, comments Sisci, who says he is convinced that the US will use” this year to create a broader and closer alliance between Western countries “in an anti-Chinese function.

The tour in Asia of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks for itself, who from Japan accused China of “coercion and aggression” with respect to human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang and of increasing aggression , with thoughts of Taiwan and the South China Sea. The mission serves to “coordinate with the Asian allies, with Japan in particular, and therefore to have one’s back in some way covered – observes Sisci – America no longer wants to go to a meeting with China alone, but he wants coordination with the allies “.

With Blinken’s trip to Asia, he continues, the “United States is trying to forge the American military, economic, political alliance around China“.” It is possible then – he adds – that after the meeting in Anchorage and therefore after having clarified its position with China, with a clear position behind it with its Asian allies, America will ask Europe for more precision “. .

On the eve of the talks in Alaska, after years of all-out tensions between Beijing and the Trump administration, Biden’s United States sanctioned 24 Chinese and Hong Kong officials in connection with Beijing’s latest squeeze on the former British colony. “It is – Sisci remarks – a formal and very practical condemnation of the new government of China on Hong Kong”. In this climate, Beijing – as the Chinese ambassador to Washington, Cui Tiankai said – does not have “high expectations” on the Anchorage meeting. According to Sisci, the two powers “will take the measures”, but there will hardly be “important results”. Also because, he points out, China sends Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi, who come from the Foreign Ministry, to Alaska, “people used to expose the official Chinese version to foreigners and to listen to what foreigners say, but they have no real room for negotiation and maneuver“.

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