2023-10-22 01:39:48
All that remains is for China to invade Taiwan or for North Korea to launch one of its new missiles against the capitalist neighbor to the south for all the major sources of war tension in the world to explode. With Russia mired in the invasion of Ukraine and the Middle East facing the threat that the war between Israel and Hamas will spread throughout the region, there are many who fear that a spark will light the always hot fuse in the Far East and that World War III breaks out.
“That would be the most critical scenario of all,” says Ernesto Pascual, doctor in Political Science and International Relations at the Open University of Catalonia (UOC). «However, it is very unlikely that it will happen. Because, although China is often talked about as a belligerent country, it is actually very pragmatic. “It is the largest seller in the world and war is bad for business,” he analyzes.
In any case, the situation at a global level reflects a growing polarization of the geopolitical board into two large blocks: one led by the United States and another in which China takes over from the Soviet Union. «We still have the Cold War scheme, but the world has changed. Now it is multipolar. It is more atomized because globalization has intertwined interests. And the arms race from then is now technological and economic, areas in which conflicts develop,” says Pascual. Hence, the two superpowers use elements such as tariffs and sanctions as missiles.
For now, the war between the United States and China is being fought only in the areas of trade and technology
Félix Arteaga, military officer in the reserve and principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, is of the same opinion: «The geopolitical confrontation between China and the United States is incipient and is modifying the alignment criteria in different regions of the world. It forces countries to take sides, although some, like those in the global south, try to oppose it. Arteaga points out that, in this new world, “we are increasingly experiencing situations that are not war, but are not peace either,” and that, in this gray zone, “democratic countries are at a disadvantage compared to totalitarian ones because they are behind in disinformation campaigns and have more difficulty mobilizing resources for war.
On paper, it looks like a struggle between the values of liberal democracies and authoritarianism, something that, for example, Ukraine thoroughly exploits to maintain Western support. “Ideology is a multifaceted component that does prevail in the multilateral framework,” says Arteaga. But the translation of this into practice is complex and can lead to apparently contradictory positions: for example, Washington supports the Jewish country despite the fact that even the United Nations censures as illegal and contrary to human rights the settlements that have been taking territory from Israel. the Palestinians, who do receive support from China. But Beijing, which since the proclamation of the People’s Republic has positioned itself on the Muslim side, in recent years has led a rapprochement with the Jewish country due to the increase in its economic and technological exchanges.
Little by little, a mess is coming together in which the United States is losing strength as ‘the global policeman’. “It is difficult to be in all the conflicts, because that forces resources to be channeled towards war and not public policies,” says Arteaga. «Trump’s four years of isolationism have made the United States lose prominence. Furthermore, the country is falling behind in the development of technology, and that is producing a change that it resists, as empires in decline have always done,” adds Pascual, pointing out that this scenario paves the way for a rise of movements such as fascism.
Meanwhile, China’s influence is growing, but the regime seems reluctant to take over American geopolitical hegemony. Or he does it in a much more sibylline way. A good example of this is the war in Ukraine, where theoretically it has put itself in profile because it claims to have good relations with both sides. But Arteaga emphasizes that Vladimir Putin “is very happy that China is in conflict with the West,” because he is an element that tips the balance in his favor and that is why he supports Russia economically. In Africa, the continent with the most open conflicts, the West and China also clash. “There, Beijing offers infrastructure in exchange for raw materials,” adds Pascual.
ISRAEL | PALESTINE
A fire that is impossible to extinguish
Israel is unique for many reasons. The promised land of the Jews became a State after the terrible holocaust of the Second World War where, in 1917, the British colonizers determined that there would be a “Jewish national home.” The problem is that it was mostly populated by Palestinians opposed to him.
The conflict was served, and it did not take long to arrive. However, although the Arab countries came to fight together, Israeli military supremacy has always prevailed, backed by the unconditional support of the United States. Thus, with each confrontation, Israel has been appropriating territory and cornering the Palestinians a little more.
A child injured in one of the attacks on Gaza. EP
Despite living in a constant state of war in which only its intensity changes, Israel has managed to prosper in every way. However, the conflict still has no solution and, if the current war spreads, it could lead the country to what analyst Félix Arteaga calls “an existential challenge.”
UKRAINE | RUSSIA
The death rattles of an empire that is no longer an empire
On paper, Ukraine is a young country. It was born in 1991 from the ruins of the Soviet Union. However, its history as Kievan Rus is ancient, and it is considered the germ of Russian culture and its empire. They are two elements that explain, in part, the ambition of Vladimir Putin, who already annexed Crimea in 2014 at the beginning of a war that in 2022 took on a new dimension when Russian troops tried to take control of Kiev.
Funeral for a soldier killed in Ukraine. AFP
Since then, the one in Ukraine is the war that most clearly confronts the Western bloc with the one led by China. And, although many predicted very different battles in the 21st century, Ernesto Pascual, from the UOC, affirms that little differs in many aspects from those of the First World War. “It is a hybrid war, with very technological elements, such as drones, but with trenches and tanks like a hundred years ago,” he comments. And the greatest fear is that it will escalate to the nuclear field
CHINA | TAIWAN
The spark of the next world war
When Mao’s communists emerged victorious from the civil war and proclaimed the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the rival side had to flee to the island of Taiwan, which was recognized for decades by numerous countries as legitimate China.
Since Beijing, however, the sovereignty of ancient Formosa has always been claimed, and most of the world accepts the ‘one China policy’, which denies Taiwan the ability to maintain diplomatic relations and be recognized as a State. But it is ‘de facto’ a democratic and progressive country, where Chinese identity is in decline. This makes reunification by force only feasible.
Planes in a Chinese military exercise against Taiwan. EP
Different analysts consider that China could take the island relatively easily, but that would put it on the brink of military confrontation with the United States, which promises to protect Taiwan. And that could be the spark of a new world war, although few foresee it starting.
NORTH KOREA | SOUTH KOREA
The awesome power of nuclear deterrence
Technically, Korea is still at war. No treaty has put an end to the conflict that split the peninsula in two in the 1950s. The 38th parallel thus separates two opposing systems and ideologies: a hereditary and communist dictatorship in the north, and a democratic and capitalist regime in the south. . But it also divides the world: while the China-led bloc supports the Kim Jong-un regime, the Western sphere arms Seoul.
Kim Jong-un and his daughter in front of one of the North Korean ballistic missiles. EP
Aware that the latter is much more powerful, the Kims were clear from the beginning that they needed to develop atomic weapons, the only one capable of deterring an invasion that would end their power. The current dictator, Kim Jong-un, managed to develop it and has been consolidated with the miniaturization of nuclear warheads and the development of ballistic missiles. It is an arsenal that ensures the isolation of North Korea and the survival of the communist dynasty, enough to inspire other dictators, such as the Iranian ayatollahs.
ETHIOPIA
An ethnic bomb that spreads uncontrollably
Most of the world’s wars are fought in Africa. There are more than twenty civil wars and conflicts that blur the border between terrorism and insurgency. Many are a consequence of the botched decolonization carried out by the European powers, which drew borders with pencil lines, without taking into account the peculiarities of those who live in those areas.
Girl injured in the fighting in Tigray. AFP
The one that has shaken Ethiopia since 2020 was born in the northern region of Tigray, and confronts the Army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, one of the many groups with similar names on the continent. In this case, however, the fighting was fierce, and the United States described the situation as an attempted ethnic cleansing against the citizens of Tigray. Fortunately, the cessation of hostilities was signed in November 2022, but it was too late: other ethnic conflicts in different parts of the country had already broken out and remain open.
EL SAHEL
Fighting territory for the interests of foreign powers
In less than three years, five Sahel countries have suffered coups d’état. Several of them more than one. They are Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, and Gabon. It has been an unprecedented wave of military authoritarianism, justified by reasons as diverse as corruption or the inability to combat the jihadism that is spreading through this African region.
A French soldier protects a convoy in Mali. AFP
They are conflicts that have popular support to a varying degree and that also end up affecting powers far away from Africa. The closest is France, which still maintains close ties with the former colonies. Like the United States, it generally supports governments elected at the polls. Opposite it is Russia, which on many occasions subcontracts its war operations to groups like Wagner. Thus, Africa is becoming a battlefield for the interests of third countries, and in which it is always the civilian population that suffers the worst consequences.
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