In the spring, the tanks from the USA, Germany and the UK will arrive in Ukraine after the training courses are completed. Perhaps by then a decision will be made to supply Zelensky with fighter jets, probably someone’s F-16. And perhaps the Israeli government will decide to supply him with a ‘David slingshot’ or an ‘Iron Dome’.
In any case, this forecast is based on the assumption that the war in Ukraine, which began a year ago, when Putin sent his army to invade Ukraine and take control of the capital Kiev “within three days”, is far from over. A year has passed and Putin is far from Kiev, where US President Joe Biden actually walks down the main street.
In February 2022, something happened in Central Europe that the continent and the world, saturated with memories of world wars, hoped it would never see again: a power attacks a neighboring country to conquer it, millions of refugees and hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded and sworded cities.
The world of 2022 did not know how to establish a mechanism that would prevent such a military occupation. The United Nations does not know how to prevent wars. This year, the USA, NATO and Europe knew how to mobilize and help the victim, enormous assistance, in the hope that the victim will be able to expel the violent and aggressive occupier from his land.
What will happen in 2023? Where is soldering in Ukraine? When the enemy is Putin, we will not know what will happen tomorrow, what he is planning there between the walls of the Kremlin, how he sees what is seen in the world as a leadership failure, a failure in early intelligence, in military planning, in knowing the level of competence of his army, in operational decisions and in the management of the war he initiated. He knows how to threaten with nuclear weapons.
It is difficult to eliminate Russia
On one issue we heard a consensus among experts following the course of the war: it is far from over.
General Mark Maley, Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Army, says: “This year, it seems to me that it will be difficult to remove Russia from every square meter it has occupied. It may happen, but it will be very difficult.”
Johann Michel from the Institute for International Strategy in Berlin: “It will last months.” Michael Koffman from the Center for the Study of Russia in Washington: “The war will last for years,” and the Italian analyst Lucio Carciolo: “It will last for years with breaks. It will end when Russia or Ukraine collapse, because for both sides it is a matter of life and death.”
In Israel, Prof. Eitan Gilboa, a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and Bar Ilan University, says: “After the end of winter, a significant escalation is expected on both sides. The West will not be able to allow Putin to win, and if his attack fails, he may use nuclear weapons. It is likely To assume that the Americans and NATO will use conventional weapons against him on a significant scale, and the chance of an inter-power nuclear war will increase.” Predictions are really encouraging.
Neither side is in a state of surrender
I spoke with Dr. Ofer Guterman, Director of the Intelligence, Research and Trends Unit at the business consulting company CONSULTING BDO, formerly a member of the Research Division at AMAN and a research fellow at the Institute for Intelligence Methodology Research:
“The situation today, a year into the war, is the uncertainty of its embodiment. It can be assumed that both sides will try to achieve achievements in the coming months, but it is not going to end soon. Neither side is in a position to surrender, give up or give up.”
Dr. Guterman believes that in the long term, agreements will be reached and there will be negotiations, but not soon. Also because of Putin’s capabilities and ideological perception of Ukraine’s importance to Russia. He cannot afford to withdraw, and Ukraine is strongly supported by the West and will be able to continue. Therefore, an agreement is far away.”
Dr. Guterman claims that the war created a dramatic change in Europe: “The war is changing the security map of Europe. Putin wanted to wrap NATO in a protective shell to weaken the organization – and achieved exactly the opposite. NATO is more relevant than ever.
Trump claimed at the time to NATO, ‘We fund and you do nothing’. The creations have been turned upside down. A huge increase in the defense and military budgets. Germany currently has the largest army on the continent, equipped with our ‘Arrow’ missiles. We notice a sharp increase in budgets and development expenses and the demand for Amal. H – This is due to the increased sense of threat.”
The military aid to Ukraine is so great that it is being emptied to the western countries of their stocks. Germany, Canada, and France have expressed fear of inventory depletion, and the result: an increase in demand for military equipment in the defense industries. A unique point: Eastern European countries have large quantities of obsolete military equipment made in the Soviet Union. Countries such as the Czech Republic aim to get rid of this equipment and buy modern equipment in the West.
What does it mean to supply Iranian weapons, such as anti-aircraft missiles, to Russia, for use on the fronts of Ukraine.
Dr. Ofer Guterman: “Iran made a significant strategic choice this year. Due to deficiencies in the Russian military, difficulties in obtaining weapons and sanctions, Russia turned to Iran. This openly allied itself with Russia and came to its aid, including apparently establishing a factory in Russia for the production of Iranian drones. There is a tarnishing of Iran’s image in the eyes of the West, especially in the eyes of the United States. This is a complete stabilization of Tehran in favor of Moscow, and it is ridiculous in the eyes of Washington.
“Ukraine is a testing ground for the Iranian military, the operational capabilities of the weapons from Tehran were tested there. I hope that Israel makes sure to get its hands on such a missile in order to improve and adapt its air defense capabilities to Iran’s missile.
The effect of the war on the defense industries in Israel
Dr. Guterman says that there is an increase in demand from the industries in Israel. These are mainly European countries that see the importance of unmanned tools in modern warfare. Therefore, there is an increase in demand for Israeli systems that provide solutions, such as for cyber security, such as anti-tank missiles, means for the survival of forces, precision armaments, ‘wind jacket’, ‘porcupine arrow’. There is definitely an increase in sales. Europe has become a relevant arena for the products of the Israeli defense industries.
“There is a phenomenon that, due to the failures in Ukraine, Russia is pushed off the supply lists of customers, and they may turn to Israeli manufacturers. There are already countries that have replaced Russia with other suppliers. In order to penetrate these niches, there is room for Israeli companies to partner with American and European industries in areas where we are strong.”
Dr. Guterman is convinced that Ukraine must also be a learning ground for Israel: “We must learn the lessons of the various equipment in Ukraine, especially the lessons of operating the Iranian UAVs in combat there, in order to improve and upgrade our equipment.”
The war is entering its second year. The Ukrainian people are holding on with the help of qualities that are the exact opposite of the mistakes made by Putin: a combination of widespread civilian support, determined leadership, excellent public relations in the world, military tactics, and above all – military and civilian public courage and a willingness not to surrender.