2023-09-08 06:00:00
The number of legal abortions most likely increased in the United States in the first six months of the year compared to 2020, according to an analysis of new estimates. States with more permissive abortion laws welcomed patients from those with bans, and access to abortion pills through telemedicine continued to expand.
Posted at 12:00 a.m.
Amy Schoenfeld Walker et Allison McCann
The New York Times
A new study from the Guttmacher Institute presents the latest data on legal abortions since the ruling Dobbs of the Supreme Court upended access to abortion across the country, allowing more than a dozen states to ban or restrict the procedure.
INFOGRAPHICS THE PRESS
Estimated change in the number of abortions
The data suggests that thousands of women have crossed state lines to obtain abortions, despite state restrictions. They also indicate an increase in the number of abortions among women living in states where abortion is legal.
“There are two forces at work,” said Caitlin Myers, an economist at Middlebury College who reviewed Guttmacher’s report.
On the one hand, there are people trapped in states where abortion is banned and, on the other hand, there are people who live in large parts of the country where access to abortion is limited. is improved.
Caitlin Myers, economist at Middlebury College
In total, an estimated 511,000 terminations of pregnancies took place in areas where abortion was legal in the first six months of 2023, according to a review of Guttmacher data, compared to about 465,000 abortions in the nationally during a six-month period in 2020.
Abortions have increased in almost every state where the procedure remains legal, but the change has been most visible in states bordering those that ban abortion altogether. Many of these states have relaxed their abortion laws, and providers have opened new clinics to serve patients from elsewhere. In Illinois, for example, where abortion is legal, the number of abortions is estimated to have increased by 69% in 2023 compared to the same period in 2020, from 26,000 to around 45,000.
Other states with restrictive neighbors — including Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico and South Carolina — also saw increases in the estimated number of abortions.
Arizona, Georgia, and Indiana, on the other hand, sought to restrict abortion, and all three states saw declines in their estimates. Arizona and Georgia set limits on the length of time abortion was permitted, and Indiana recently passed a total ban.
” A cost “
The researchers stressed that the increase in the number of abortions so far in 2023 does not mean that state bans have not impacted abortion access.
“Travel has a cost,” said Isaac Maddow-Zimet, a data scientist at the Guttmacher Institute and lead researcher for the Institute’s report.
Just because someone isn’t denied an abortion doesn’t mean the experience was easy. And we know some can’t leave their state.
Isaac Maddow-Zimet, lead researcher for the Guttmacher Institute report
There is no estimate yet of the number of women who have been refused or unable to obtain an abortion. The increases seen in most states may also mask the number of abortions prevented by the bans.
“Abortions had started to increase before the law came into force Dobbsand they could have continued to increase even more sharply than was observed if there had not been a ban,” said Ms. Myers, of Middlebury College.
The Guttmacher Institute report is based on a survey of brick-and-mortar abortion clinics and virtual and telehealth providers. The institute, which supports the right to abortion, does not contact all clinics in each state, but relies on a sample to estimate the number of abortions.
The report does not account for abortions obtained outside the formal health care system, such as through pills mailed to states where abortion is banned from other countries or states where abortion is prohibited. abortion is legal. Other data suggests that thousands of people, especially those living in states where abortion is banned, have ordered abortion pills online overseas.
An observation expected to evolve
The most populous states, such as California, Florida, Illinois, and New York, experienced the highest number of abortions. Because the researchers relied on a statistical model, they reported some degree of uncertainty in their calculations, and the uncertainty was greater in states with higher numbers of abortion providers. No data was collected in the 14 states where abortion bans were in effect at the start of the year.
“Lawmakers feel like we’ve passed tough laws here and our neighbors in Colorado or Illinois are allowing these companies to set up shop on our border,” said Katie Daniel, director of state policy at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.
The researchers note that additional work will be needed to better evaluate the effect of restrictions on abortion as well as increased access to abortion pills through telehealth and clandestine networks.
The situation is expected to evolve later this year as new restrictions come into force. Guttmacher researchers collected data on abortion before legislatures passed bans and restrictions in Indiana, North Carolina and South Carolina.
This article was first published in the New York Times.
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