“When we have epidemiological data showing that” among those vaccinated with AstraZeneca “there is a higher than expected frequency of thromboembolic phenomena, then we can begin to think about a cause-and-effect relationship” between these events and the vaccine. anti-Covid. Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Irccs Institute for Pharmacological Research, is extremely cautious. And the chapter of the AstraZeneca vaccine speaks with difficulty, “because – he explains to time.news Salute – at this moment there is no data on which to express himself”. Having said this, “there are some peculiarities that certainly need to be studied, but my message is: as long as there is no epidemiological evidence of a greater incidence of these phenomena than expected in the normal population, we have no reason to worry”.
The numbers, he repeats, “are the ones to always refer to”. And so it starts right here to answer the questions about what we should expect after the temporary and precautionary stop to the AstraZeneca vaccine, awaiting new communication from the European Medicines Agency Ema, expected for Thursday. “I think of the data on thromboembolic events: if we calculate that in the US there are 300-600 thousand people who develop some form of thrombosis in a year, we can estimate that in Italy they will be from 100 to 150 thousand. So it would mean that they can probably occur in Italy. 300 to 500 episodes of blood clots per day. It is clear that the more people we vaccinate, the more we will have some who still develop clotting problems close to the injection and we may want to attribute them to this circumstance “, he reflects.
Having said that, speaking specifically of the reports on which the experts are investigating, Remuzzi explains how there are “peculiarities in some of these cases. There is talk of thrombosis associated with a lack of platelets. These aspects must certainly be studied well – he acknowledges – and which recall certain peculiarities that can be found in various rare diseases, often genetic or induced by pathogens such as viruses or bacteria. But here we are faced with a vaccine, which is a completely different thing. And it should be noted that this observed characteristic is however very rare and, this being the case, the benefits of the vaccine are much higher than any risk that one had to run “.
In general, observes the scientist, “what we must realize is that for example in the United Kingdom, especially thanks to the AstraZeneca vaccine, there has been a reduction from a thousand to 62” daily Covid-19 “deaths and every week they are reduced by 30. % serious illnesses, hospitalizations and intensive care, intubated people and deaths. This shows the impact of vaccination and its importance “.
“Mind you: if we estimate that in Italy about 2 million people have been vaccinated with AstraZeneca, even if there were 10 fatal events the probability would be 0.0005%, perhaps lower than that of many other events, such as the probability of an accident between those traveling on the Milan-Rome route, and so on. Life – concludes Remuzzi – is a balance of risks and benefits. We face it for whatever we choose to do. Even getting in a car, getting on a plane or crossing the road. And in this case of the vaccine, our choice to do so would be in favor of the benefits even now. So let’s wait before drawing any conclusions “.