The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) alerted this Saturday in a Twitter thread that, if the forecasts are met, in the middle of next week there will be “a truly abnormal situation in terms of temperatures, with more than 30° in points in the east and south of the peninsula, as well as in the Canary Islands.” Moreover, at points in the Guadalquivir valley, Extremadura, the Canary Islands, Murcia and the Valencian Community, it could be around up to 33° and 34°. It will be about “very inappropriate temperatures for the end of March”, with daytime values ”between 10° and 15° above the normal average” for this time of year in large areas of the country, both on Wednesday 29 and Thursday 30 This new rise in the thermometers, already high throughout the month, is due to the generation of a corridor between a powerful anticyclone and a storm that will move through the south of France, through which it will sneak a very warm air mass from the south.
“In most of the territory, they will be maximum temperatures located above the 95th percentile, that is, they will be among the 5% of the warmest recorded for these dates,” explains the agency. The EFI (Extreme Forecast Index), with which the rarity of an extreme phenomenon is quantified) reflects an average temperature (average of maximum and minimum) between Tuesday 28 and Thursday 30 “very unusual” for the time due to its warm nature. On Wednesday, the worst would be concentrated in the southwest. 30/32° would be reached in large areas of Seville and points in Córdoba, Jaén, Granada, Cádiz, Badajoz, Zaragoza, La Rioja, Ciudad Real and the Canary Islands. On Thursday, the scourge would move to the southeast. The 30/32° spot would affect Seville, Córdoba, Jaén, Granada, Cádiz, Málaga, Almería, Murcia, Alicante, Valencia, Castellón, Zaragoza, Huesca, Lleida, Tarragona and the Canary Islands, with peaks of 32°-34° in Murcia, Alicante and Valencia and up to 34°-36° in Murcia.
Spain will thus be teleported to temperatures typical of June at the end of March. It will not be the first warm episode ―not a heat wave, a phenomenon that by its very definition can only occur, for now, in summer― so far in the meteorological spring: March 10 already saw a four-day summer with temperatures up to 15° above the normal average, which left 10 monthly records, with highs of 31.8° and tropical nights. Both warm episodes are yet another example of how summer is eating up spring in Spain due to global warming. The Balearic meteorologist Duncan Wingen stresses that these values “They are not normal, they are not coincidences, they are not simple variability, they are a trend.”
For its part, the magazine RAM Meteorology points out that records can be broken. The veteran expert Francisco Martín, who describes the situation as “very rare and very abnormal for the end of March”, details on this website that the cause of the escalation in thermometers is that the weather will be “dominated by an anticyclonic situation that, in At certain times, it can generate an entry of southerly component winds, which, together with other stability factors, can lead the thermometers to record values before the end of March and before Easter Week.
In the middle of next week, if the forecasts come true, we could be facing a truly abnormal situation in terms of temperatures, with more than 30ºC in points in the east and south of the peninsula, as well as in the Canary Islands. pic.twitter.com/w8pw3HeJTn
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) March 25, 2023
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Martín considers that, with the forecasts in hand, the records of Seville airport (32.9° on March 31, 2015), Córdoba airport (33° on the same day), Murcia (33.6° on March 10, 2015) could be exceeded. 2017), Valencia (33.2° on March 25, 1988) and Alicante (32.6° on March 25, 1988), although “the bar to overcome certain absolute maximums is very high”. Other experts also point to possible records in other hot spots in the Guadalquivir depression such as Montoro (Córdoba) and Andújar (Jaén). “Even if they don’t fight, we’ll talk about very beastly anomalies. It will be the heat typical of the beginning of summer,” says Roberto Granda, of Eltiempo. is.
“A practically summer environment that, in addition, will be accompanied by skies with few clouds and little rainfall,” stresses Aemet. “By the end of the month, the only significant rains are expected in Galicia, the Cantabrian Sea and the Pyrenees,” the agency warns. The scarcity of rain could not be more worrying after a month of March that is turning out to be drier and warmer than normal. Spain entered a long-term meteorological drought in December, that is, the rainfall recorded in the previous 36 months has been low compared to the normal average, and in March it continues in this situation.
“We will end the month with very little rainfall. From March 1 to 23, the rains were below half the normal value for that period, because 18 liters per square meter had fallen in the whole of Spain, when the average is 38″, the Aemet spokesman explained on Friday, Ruben Del Campo. So far this hydrological year, which began on October 1, 2022 and is about to reach its halfway point, 329 liters have been collected, 14% less than the normal average. What’s more, in eastern parts of the Peninsula, such as the eastern provinces of Catalonia, Murcia, Almería and coastal areas of Granada and Málaga, there is “not even half the normal rainfall”.
And we’re not just talking about drought. “This hot and dry environment results in a risk of fires that, despite still being a long way from summer, already reaches very high or extreme values in certain areas of the country,” highlights Aemet after the first serious fire of the year between Castellón and Teruel. .
How long will this heat last? On Friday, March 31, it seems that “there could be a brief relief with the passage of an Atlantic front, which could leave rains and storms spread over the Peninsula, mainly in the northwest quadrant, more intense in Galicia,” says Martín. In addition, this front would cause a drop in thermometers that would begin on Friday in the west of the Peninsula, would become general on Saturday and would also be notable. “The drop could be intense, between 6º and 10º in almost the entire country, except on the Mediterranean coast”, the Del Campo figure. But temperatures could rise again from Monday the 3rd, so Easter would begin with sunny, dry and warm weather.