Affiliation and unemployment assessment May 2023

Affiliation and unemployment assessment May 2023

2023-06-02 10:42:04

The months of May are the ones that seasonally tend to reflect the best behavior of employment records, especially with regard to affiliation. On this occasion, said variable has worsened compared to the previous years, which has also happened in the case of registered unemployment. Finally, recruitment has dropped significantly in year-on-year terms, despite the increase compared to what was measured in April.

The Social Security affiliation in May grew by 200,411 people, an increase of 0.97%, which is the second best performance in the last seven months of May (only 2020 was worse). The seasonally adjusted series of affiliates, according to the Ministry, likewise reflects a monthly increase. On the other hand, year-on-year employment slowed down to 2.88%, breaking with three consecutive months of acceleration. The total number of affiliates is situated in the 20.82 million people.

Contracting grew by 22.01% compared to April, with a total of 1.41 million contracts. Compared to the previous month, the increase in hiring has occurred both in the temporary (+25.60%) and indefinite (+17.78%). In year-on-year termspermanent contracts fell by 14.45% while temporary contracts fell by 13.51% compared to the figures for May 2022.

He registered unemployment decreased in May by 49,260 people (-1.77%), which is the second worst May for this variable in the last decade, only improving the 2020 record. In seasonally adjusted terms, the behavior has been negative, since it reflects an increase in unemployment in the month. The total number of registered unemployed stands at 2.74 million people, remaining below 3 million. Jobseekers stood at 4.24 millionafter a monthly decrease of 69,649 people.

In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment grew by 11,963 people in May and registration increased by 48,000

He Registered unemployment grew, in seasonally adjusted terms, by 11,963 people during May, which represents a negative behavior in said period, aggravated by the fact that permanent discontinuous inactive workers were not included.

The seasonally adjusted series of affiliation After the profound modification carried out by the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migrations, benefiting the evolution in this first half of the year, it has reflected in May a monthly increase of 47,883 peopleequivalent to a increase of 0.23%.

In year-on-year terms, seasonally adjusted affiliation grew by 2.85%. This represents a slowdown of more than one tenth in the annual growth rate. As a consequence, three consecutive months of year-on-year acceleration in employment come to an end. In the last twelve months the rate of growth has fallen by 2.1 percentage points.

Hospitality and Administrative Activities, the sectors with the highest employment gains. The Balearic Islands, Catalonia and Madrid, the regions with the highest increases

The membership to Social Security has grown in all the autonomous communities and in Ceuta and Melilla. The largest increases have been measured in baleares (+49.265), Catalonia (+40.503) y Madrid (+16,463). He registered unemployment it fell in all communities and in Ceuta and Melilla. The greatest decreases were measured in Andalucía (-6,521) and Castilla – La Mancha (-6,138).

By sectors, in May membership has grown in all activities. The largest increases have been in Hostelry (+68,924), a sector that explains more than a third of the increase in membership, followed by Administrative activities (+21.786) y Trade (+16.552).

Very short-term permanent contracts: 45,000 people signed more than one in May

Hiring in May has grown compared to the previous month. The increase, of 22.01%, It has been explained by both permanent and temporary contracts. In total, in the month of May, 1.41 million contracts were signed.

In the case of permanent contracts, 624,853 contracts were signed in May, which is 94,316 more than in April (+17.78%). 40.13% of the permanent contracts were full-time, compared to 37.49% permanent and 22.38% part-time permanent. Besides, 44,899 people signed more than one permanent contract in May, a historical record in a calendar month and a phenomenon that, since the beginning of 2022, has occurred with 504 thousand people. Temporary hiring, for its part, registered a month-on-month increase of 160,429 contracts (+25.60%).

In YoY termshiring has fallen by 13.93%, with decreases both in permanent (-14.45%) and temporary (-13.51%).

Randstad Research analysis: why a decrease of 49 thousand unemployed can be a bad figure?

May is the month in which the best performances are traditionally recorded for the affiliation and registered unemployment series. It is almost obligatory to expect large increases in employment and sharp declines in unemployment. In this month of May 2023, the behavior has been the usual in terms of the sign of the variations, but the magnitudes have been lower than expected and, in the case of registered unemployment, frankly disappointing. How can it be explained that such a significant decrease, of 49,000 unemployed, can be classified as bad data? The answer lies, as is well known, in seasonality.

Registered unemployment falls considerably in the months of May practically without exception. In this century, increases in unemployment have only been measured on two occasions in that month. In 2008 and 2020, years characterized by major economic and labor crises in Spain. In the rest of the months of May, unemployment fell by very significant magnitudes. In the last decade (including the bad data from 2020), the average decrease in the months of May was 93 thousand people, practically double the 49 thousand unemployed in the last month. In addition, the analysis of the seasonally adjusted series corroborates the poor performance of the variable, with an increase of 12,000 unemployed.

Something similar happens, although to a lesser extent, with the affiliation data. An increase of 200 thousand affiliates is a huge variation. But it is not at all strange in a month of May. In fact, it is the worst behavior, the smallest increase, in that month since 2016, with the logical exception of 2020. And as a consequence, the year-on-year job creation slows down.

#Affiliation #unemployment #assessment


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