British researcher Mark Galeotti, a specialist in politics and security issues in Russia, outlines the scenarios he considers the most plausible. If uncertainty reigns, one thing is certain: a return to the status quo is impossible.
Almost a month after the start of the invasion, “it becomes clear how badly the war in Ukraine is going for Vladimir Putin”, assure The Sunday Times, in London. Advances in the north, south and east of the country are overshadowed by one obvious failure: the inability of the Russian army to take the major cities. Only one of them, Kherson, has fallen so far. Despite intensive shelling, Mariupol resists. Just like Kyiv, “which seems more and more impregnable”, underlines Mark Galeotti in the columns of the conservative weekly. The result of an underestimation of Ukrainian resistance and patriotism, adverse weather conditions and an apparent lack of motivation among the troops.
“It is therefore not surprising that Moscow is now more willing to talk about peace,” analyzes this specialist in politics and security issues in Russia.
But in the short term, Russia is doing everything to strengthen its position in the negotiations, so the fighting is getting tougher. The bombardment of a theater that served as a shelter for Mariupol and the missile strikes in the west, on the city of Lviv, hitherto spared, prove among other things that the Kremlin is trying to put pressure on the Ukrainians during the talks.”
In this context, three options are emerging, believes Mark Galeotti.
The ideal outcome, according to the Briton, “would of course be a negotiated deal”. The most likely conditions
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