According to them, having the initiative in the entire hostilities area from November 2023 allowed the Russians to determine the location, time, scale and requirements of fighting in Ukraine themselves, while Kiev was forced to devote material and human resources to reactive defensive operations.
However, the operation of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kursk region forced the Kremlin and the Russian military leadership to react and transfer forces and equipment to the section where the Ukrainian troops launched the offensive.
The Russian army did not conduct active combat operations in the Kursk region, but used its own initiative to put pressure on Ukraine. Among other things, the Russians prevented Ukrainian forces from marshalling manpower and assets for future counteroffensive operations, while setting the tempo of hostilities to allow them to sustain their offensive.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leadership of the Russian military probably wrongly decided that Ukraine does not have the ability to seize this initiative, and Ukraine’s ability to achieve operational surprise and seize the joint military initiative calls into question the operational-strategic assumptions underlying Russia’s current offensive efforts in Ukraine,” he notes. analysts.
In their view, this operation by the Ukrainian armed forces and possible further incursions across the border force Russia to decide whether to consider the 1,000-kilometer international border with Ukraine as a legitimate front line for Russia to defend. This may lead to constraints on long-term operational planning that Russia has not faced before.
August 6 an invasion of the Kursk region from the territory of Ukraine was reported. August 7 Russian social networks announced that Ukrainian armed forces have taken control of several settlements in the area and are pushing deep into Russian territory. On Saturday, the Russian authorities announced that more than 76,000 people had been evacuated from the border areas of the Kursk region to safer places. population. On Monday, new evacuation orders were also issued in the neighboring Belgorod region.
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2024-08-15 20:38:04