For months, kyiv pleaded with its allies for ever-increasing amounts of weapons, before suddenly launching a full-scale counter-offensive. For its part, Russia continues to bombard its adversary, but seems to have experienced difficulties in supplying its troops as they progressed into Ukrainian territory, stretching the front line and destroying all the infrastructure.
From abandoned tanks to rocket launchers delivered drop by drop, the war in Ukraine is also a war of equipment and stocks. But who can win this battle? Can Ukraine win without precious Western ammunition? Can Russia finish dry? 20 Minutes takes stock of the situation with Philippe Migault, director of the European Center for Strategic Analysis.
What do we know about the state of ammunition and armament stocks in each country?
In essence, it is impossible to know precisely the state of the stocks of the Russian or Ukrainian army, since “these data are classified”, recalls Philippe Migault to 20 Minutes. Nevertheless, the strategic issues expert recalls an important point: “the Ukrainians have a very inferior” and seriously damaged defense industry, where the Russians remain “the world’s second largest exporter” of arms.
Thus, even deprived of all aid or subject to sanctions, Moscow could set in motion its entire armaments industry in the service of war. “And on the stocks, Russia went to war with weapons and ammunition from the Soviet era in huge quantities,” says the researcher. Dating from the Cold War, thousands of tanks, certainly obsolete today, could therefore be repaired without requiring Western technology, he judges. However, the war lasting longer than expected by the Kremlin, “the chances of a Russian military exhaustion are much higher than those of a Ukrainian military exhaustion”, estimated recently Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) at the Black Sea and Balkan Security Forum.
Russia could have another trick up its sleeve: for the past few days, rumors have been circulating about arms deliveries by North Korea and Iran. Debris of a drone shot down by the Ukrainian defense has been found, and could prove that the drone is of Iranian manufacture. In the meantime, Philippe Migault “refuses to comment” until there is confirmation.
Is Ukraine suspended from Western aid?
As the Ukrainian arms industry is one of the main targets of Russian bombing, it becomes difficult for kyiv to produce and repair its own weapons. Ukraine thus finds itself “reduced to the aid of Western industry”, summarizes Philippe Migault. This poses many limitations. “This industry needs to produce more, to bring the equipment to the Ukrainian border and then to the front, and for the Ukrainians to be trained,” he lists. Much more complicated than for Russia, which can at least bring its weapons very quickly to the border.
But can this help last? “The German example is illuminating”, underlines the director of the CEAS, while Berlin slows down its arms exports. “The German army is in such a state of decrepitude that the equipment would already have to work to give it to Ukraine”, not to mention that the Germans “realize that German industry is not viable without Russian gas”. For the researcher, “as time passes and winter approaches, divisions will grow within the EU” on the Ukrainian file.
Whoever empties his ammunition first, will he necessarily be the loser?
“We cannot win a war without ammunition or men,” stings Philippe Migault. The lack of information on the number of men engaged and out of combat disturbs the reading of the balance of forces. Thus, kyiv indicates that it has killed more than 50,000 Russian soldiers since the start of the war, but “never communicates on its own losses”, recalls the researcher. However, given “the very numerous testimonies on the power of the Russian artillery, one can imagine that there were heavy losses”. With tight flow on equipment, forced to resort to general mobilization, the Ukrainian army is playing its counter-offensive at 100% of its capacity.
On the other side, “we saw images of abandoned tanks but no corpses”, notes Philippe Migault, which makes him say that “the Russians are sparing in men”, whereas they are in numerical inferiority to the forehead. “The one who risks losing the battle of attrition is the one who could launch the counter-offensive too much”, judge for his part Pierre Grasser, associate researcher at the Sirice laboratory, in an interview with AFP. And especially the one “who will have had the most important bleeding”, concludes Philippe Migault.