The Dnieper clearly separates the enemies, who observe each other through binoculars above its majestic flow. Initial fears of a Russian trap designed to lure Ukrainian troops into deadly urban combat in the city of Kherson did not materialize. kyiv regained control of the entire 4,500 km2 occupied by Russia on the right bank of the Dnieper.
Ukraine wins a victory with beautiful parameters, first of all the absence of civilian bloodshed. Using HIMARS missiles and Western artillery since August (French Caesar, American M777, German PzH-2000, among others), it broke the invader’s logistics and forced him to retreat. There was nothing obvious about this counter-offensive in an area of steppe with a natural obstacle, the Ingoulets River, but very few trees to facilitate infiltration operations.
It seems that the Ukrainian forces had neither the numerical superiority required for the offensives, nor a comfortable number of armor to protect their troops. Kherson’s victory is the sum of Western intelligence and arms deliveries, which allow the Ukrainian army, whose own arsenal is bloodless, to strike the invader quickly and accurately up to 70 km beyond from the front line. But also, and above all, of the impressive bravery and determination of the Ukrainian soldiers to liberate their territory.
Opposite, Russia seems to have succeeded in its evacuation, since there do not seem to be large contingents of Russian prisoners of war. In all likelihood, the evacuation of the right bank by the Russians was planned well in advance, and had started before mid-October, as shown by satellite images published by the Ukrainian investigation site Skhemi. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian general staff was aware of this. Unable to evacuate the heavy equipment, the Russian army was forced to destroy part of it, the rest being added to the 2,500 “trophies” that the Ukrainian army had already turned against its aggressor.
Crimea transformed into a besieged fortress
The Russian withdrawal, however, poses several challenges for Ukraine. Having retreated behind the wide natural barrier formed by the Dnieper, Russia saw the front line shrink suddenly by 300 km. An amphibious operation to attack the left bank frontally seems extraordinarily risky for kyiv.
The arrival of “fresh blood”, in the form of mobilized troops, will allow Moscow to beef up its assault on Bakhmout and greatly densify the remaining 500 km of the front line. This will complicate the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Luhansk and Zaporizhia regions. Because kyiv does not want a front that freezes this winter and allows Russia to reconstitute its forces for a second round next year.
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