2023-12-05 19:47:32
By Antonio Romero
With a participation of 60% of the voters, the elections ended leaving a disappointment in the Historical Pact, which had the expectation of repeating the experience of the national elections, in which the masses supported their political project, even without knowing how they were integrated. The lists. This time, the Historical Pact could not obtain any of the mayorships of the large cities, even in some that had voted for so-called independent or alternative candidates such as Bogotá, Medellín, Cali and Cartagena.
What are the reasons why the Historical Pact has had this electoral setback? Can the result be classified as a defeat for the Petro Government? These are the questions that remain after the bourgeois mass media have shown the territorial elections as a referendum on the government, in which it was defeated.
Behind the figures
The first thing we must raise when we do electoral analysis is that bourgeois democracy expresses the class struggle in a distorted way, because the institutions of the bourgeois State are designed to perpetuate exploitation and oppression, whether revolutionary or reformist candidates participate. The results do not show that the bourgeoisie recovers or takes power, but rather that it has never lost it, despite not being directly in the Government. For this reason, we say that it is not at the polls that changes are sought, but in the streets, and that is why after a social outbreak it is likely that “progressive” sectors will reach high government positions.
However, the electoral results help us to look at the response of the masses and the situation of the class struggle. For example, the ten million votes that brought Petro to the presidency were the result of social mobilization that even led sectors of the bourgeoisie and petty bourgeoisie to join his reformist proposal to prevent the masses from continuing to advance in streets. These sectors supported the territorial candidacies of the so-called ‘center-right’ that today opposes the Government.
In Bogotá, the broad victory of Carlos Fernando Galán of the New Liberalism (defeating Gustavo Bolívar, reflects the setback of the “progressive” sectors of Petrism, and shows the frustration and skepticism of the bases in the face of the changes they expected, beyond the limited reforms that are being processed in the Congress of the Republic.
The mayoralties that were presented as ‘alternative’ – Jorge Iván Ospina in Cali and William Dau in Cartagena – passed into the hands of Alejandro Eder from a coalition of traditional parties, and Dumek Turbay from liberalism, respectively. The same thing happens in Medellín, where one of Petro’s strategic allies is decisively defeated at the hands of Uribism. It must be taken into account that these mayors faced the pandemic and the National Strike, being complicit in the repression, which is why there is also a vote for punishment from the masses.
The pacts in the territorial, the policy of the Pact
Territorial elections, as we have already said, are very different from national elections, where the so-called opinion vote carries more weight. In the territorial elections, the full weight of the electoral machinery, gamonalism, clientelism, nepotism and others is observed. It is common for many to vote for a friend or acquaintance, regardless of the program or party, and issues that immediately affect the population are imposed; such as citizen security, which are usually the banners of right-wing candidates.
But the territorial leaders of the Historical Pact thought that there was an opportunity to win some seats and some mayoralties, and even repeat the experience of the Congress of the Republic, when the bases massively supported their lists. This time, even in many cities it was impossible to organize lists of the Historical Pact, and each party in the coalition ended up becoming a micro-enterprise of endorsements in which social fighters had to share lists, giving up the first places, with those who buy seats. in these games.
The result was that the ten million votes that were raised against Uribism and Duque’s government in 2022, which included allies of the middle classes who voted for Petro despite believing that he is very radical, this time They voted for parties more sympathetic to liberalism and more reliable for bourgeois stability. The blow is also for the Democratic Center and more right-wing candidates, who despite celebrating their supposed victory obtained rather modest results, and in most cases thanks to coalitions where the successful candidates did not run directly on behalf of the Democratic Center.
The great error of the Historical Pact, in addition to its reformist program and its bureaucratic and conciliatory tactics with the bourgeoisie, is its absence of internal democracy, the electoral decisions were made by the parties with legal status and in most cases they were dispersed before the impossibility of an agreement between them. The proposal to hold popular assemblies, that the lists be made up of the leaders of the social outbreak and that the program of struggle with which thousands of people took to the streets be resumed, was not accepted by the leadership of the Historical Pact and of the union bureaucracy.
Contrary to that, they chose to do the same as traditional politicians (cronyism, nepotism, compromises from above), only with less money and less experience. Then they brought in the minister’s brother, the librettist, etc. Just like for Congress, while they said that we had to vote against the right and the traditional parties, they put the right and the traditional parties on the lists, so that the bourgeoisie would still win the elections, even if it was with a different sign.
In this way, the need for electoral expressions that reflect social discontent, the processes and demands of struggle that restricts and impedes the Colombian electoral regime, did not find in the Historical Pact or in “independent” endorsements the space to dispute the conscience and the vote of the masses against the entire bourgeois electoral machinery.
The other situation has been the wear and tear of the Petro Government, the cutting of reform projects; some of them went from being lukewarm to reactionary, as is the case with the pension reform project; the constant and sustained rise in gasoline and the failure to fulfill promises, such as the dismantling of ESMAD, which led to the youth that mobilized with their own resources in the presidential campaign, which was not co-opted or institutionalized, this time not will be risked for the electoral fight, which continues to be expressed in a significant abstention.
The blank vote
The results of the blank vote were heterogeneous at the national level, and express some particular phenomena in each case. However, at a general level with 4.4% of the total, they expressed a sector of the population that consciously chooses not to support any of these political projects, and that refuses to vote for the “lesser evil”, this makes it a protest vote.
At the governorate level, the blank vote obtained an important second place in Valle del Cauca with 27.6%, close to leaving out Dilian Francisca Toro, who managed to win with 40% but very poor in legitimacy. In Cundinamarca it was also second place with 12%.
In two mayoralties, in Gamarra and Maicao, the blank vote won and therefore, the elections will have to be repeated. And in Bogotá in the town of Tunjuelito, where a group of grassroots militants from the Historical Pact called to vote white for the JAL, in protest against the bureaucratic practices of their own community, the blank vote won with 17%, and if Well, in the collegiate bodies, the election does not disqualify those elected, the legitimacy will be little, and the message from the bases to the leadership is more than clear. The bases of Petrism are not blind bases willing to simply vote for whoever Petro says; and if current practices are not changed, the path that awaits them will be hard.
In Bogotá, despite the campaigns, 4.8% of voters expressed their dissatisfaction at the polls. The terrible management of Claudia López, and the poor sympathy aroused by the candidate Bolívar, associated with what was mentioned before, led to a vote for the dolphin Galán, with his technocratic profile.
What’s next… organize the fight
From the Socialist Workers Party we call to vote blank as a form of protest against the lack of democracy (no political reform has been made that allows freedom of electoral participation) and the distancing of the Petro Government from the social outbreak program which took him to the Palace of Nariño. But in addition, we call to organize the fight to make this program a reality, because we are convinced that it is not in the Congress of the Republic where we can make the radical transformations that the working class and the popular sectors need.
The territorial elections should not be reduced to a referendum on the Petro Government, nor should mechanical analyzes be made of them; but they do reflect a dispersion of the mass movement that during the National Strike tried to create spaces for coordination of the struggles, and to a large extent that dispersion has been the responsibility of the Historical Pact that has instrumentalized the mobilization in favor of its curtailed reforms, which has failed to comply the promises to the youth, which has co-opted leadership and has placed those bases in the logic of electoral expectations, trying to renew confidence in a decadent political regime.
So, we can say that there is a relative defeat of the Government, which weakens its already diminished capacity to negotiate with the bourgeoisie for its “reforms” and distances it from the bases of the Historical Pact. The way out for the working class and for the masses continues to be organization and mobilization with class independence and the fight for the flags raised during the social outbreak, not for the timid reforms that the Historical Pact is negotiating today.
The victorious mayors and governors of the right and “center-right” have already warned the government that they will use their governments as an instrument of blackmail and negotiation with the government, in the fight for reforms, Total Peace, the Development Plan and the budgets. This puts pressure on the government from the right, which will have less room for maneuver with its call for a national agreement and the policy of concertation with the bourgeoisie.
It will not be by starting the 2026 electoral campaign with some imposed candidate that the bourgeoisie’s counteroffensive will be defeated. It will be in the streets, in the assemblies, in the grassroots organizations, in the recovery of the organizations under the control of the workers, outside of the harmful cooptation and institutionalization in which a large majority currently finds itself. In the opinion of being repetitive, the only way out will be to recover the street. It will also be necessary to continue fighting for a democratic political reform, which guarantees the political participation of the working class, where thresholds, policies and the guarantee market disappear.
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