Analyse. The brutality of the pension reform has generated a union situation that we had not seen since 2010. Like thirteen years earlier, the unions are united in an eight-member front even more solid than the “G8” of 2010, to which Force worker (FO) participated at times. And they also enjoy overwhelming support from the public.
But there are two important differences. The French Democratic Confederation of Labor (CFDT) became the first union and took the leadership of the protest from the General Confederation of Labor (CGT). And in a country where unionism is weakly established – with a unionization rate of 10.3% – it has continued to weaken. We can’t act as if it had the same strike force as in 2010, because it has still lost members. This is particularly the case of the CGT, whose decline has affected almost all of its strongholds, such as the SNCF, EDF or Renault.
During professional elections in companies, according to the latest measure of representativeness in 2021, all organizations saw their electoral base crumble, with the exception of the French Confederation of Management-General Confederation of Managers (CFE- CGC) and the National Union of Autonomous Trade Unions (UNSA), and abstention increased dangerously to reach 61.76%, illustrating the growing distrust of employees sometimes tempted, as at the SNCF at the end of 2022, to join collectives outside the unions.
The unions won the first two rounds by registering undeniable successes in the streets, both on 19 and 31 January. The mobilizations, beyond the overall figure of more than one million demonstrators, have reached medium-sized towns hitherto away from union parades and have made it possible to establish a balance of power with the government. The challenge now is to hold up over time, and that’s where the equation gets complicated.
The 2010 precedent calls for caution. That year, there were ten powerful demonstrations against Nicolas Sarkozy’s plan to raise the legal retirement age from 60 to 62. If we take the figures from the trade unions, and even from the police, the finding is eloquent: 1 million on May 27, 2010 (395,000 according to the police), 1.92 million on June 24 (797,000), 2.74 million on September 7 (1.12), 3 million on September 23 (997,000), 3 million on October 2 (899,000), 3.5 million on October 12 (1.1), 3 million on October 16 (825 000), 3.5 million on October 19 (1.1 million), 2 million on October 28 (560,000) and, finally, 1.2 million on November 6 (375,000). This strong and long mobilization had not weakened Mr. Sarkozy.
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