2024-10-30 22:17:00
From January, Media Control software will be able to predict the success of a title, even before it is finished, with high percentages of accuracy
Imagine that a book — with a prediction made by artificial intelligence, but almost infallible — will not sell in 90% of cases: would you publish it? This is what is about to happen in Germany and could soon affect the rest of Europe. An article entitled talks about it «The atomic bomb» on publishingwhich did not go unnoticed. Also because he opened the culture section of the «Süddeutsche Zeitung», one of the great German newspapers, and soon invaded the German «infosphere».
In short, software is about to be introduced in German publishing at the end of the year predicts book sales with an average accuracy of 85%with peaks reaching 99%. And no, we are not talking about experiments or secondary tools of sorcerer’s apprentices, but about the main program in use – precisely to manage sales – by a large part of the German book industry: simply, a function will be added which, thanks to Ai, it will make the program make a “quantum leap”.
First some data. Behind the tool is Media Control from Baden, which has been operating on the market for decades and monitors how many books are sold, at what time and where, making this data public. 95% of publishing houses in the German area (including Austria and Switzerland) use it, as do most of the major German bookstores. The initial idea was to plan the management of returns: that is, to provide precise data to allow bookstores to order the right quantity of books, limiting the costs of returns. But then the evolution was rapid. And the new tool that will be available from January, called Demandsens, is also capable of formulating sales forecastsanalyzing “currently more than five billion data points in 1.3 seconds”, using as criteria, among others, the notoriety of the author, the virality of the topic and the previous success of similar books.
Not only that, but the real news, the most shocking one, is around the corner: so far these are printed books, ready to be distributed and arrive in bookstores. Very soon — and this is the extension that Bearingpoint, the consultancy and software company that developed Demandsens for Media Control, led by editorial digitization guru Frank Duscheck, is testing — it will also be possible to act on books not yet written. In short, based on just one exposé, AI-based software will be able to predict success with high accuracy rates. We are still experimenting, but not far from launch.
The question is: which publishing house can still afford to publish a book when the AI says 95% of the time it won’t sell? And then there is the question of approval: with these criteria, writes Süddeutsche, Buddenbrook, Annie Ernaux or Immanuel Kant would not have been published, beyond the fact that they became commercial successes. The debate, even moral, that is opening is lacerating, but how can we resist? Artificial intelligence, as seen in Frankfurt at the Buchmesse, is the stone guest of publishing.
October 30, 2024 (modified October 30, 2024 | 11:17 pm)
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Interview between the Time.news Editor and Dr. Lena Köhler, AI and Publishing Expert
Editor: Welcome, Dr. Köhler. We’re thrilled to have you here to discuss the groundbreaking development in the German publishing industry regarding AI-driven sales predictions. It sounds fascinating!
Dr. Köhler: Thank you for having me! It’s an exciting time for publishing – we’re on the verge of a significant transformation.
Editor: Let’s dive right in. The new software, Demandsens, is set to predict book sales with an incredible accuracy rate of up to 99%. How exactly does this software achieve such high levels of precision?
Dr. Köhler: Demandsens utilizes advanced machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of data. It processes over five billion data points in just 1.3 seconds! This includes historical sales figures, the author’s fame, trends in reader interests, and even the viral potential of a book’s topic. By drawing on these metrics, it can make informed predictions about future sales.
Editor: That sounds impressive. The software could potentially change the landscape of traditional publishing significantly. What do you think the implications are for authors and publishers?
Dr. Köhler: Absolutely, the implications are profound. For publishers, it means a more data-driven approach to decision-making, reducing the risks associated with book production. For authors, however, it raises questions about creativity versus marketability. Will authors feel pressured to conform to what the algorithm suggests will sell rather than exploring innovative or unconventional ideas?
Editor: That’s a crucial point. In your opinion, will this technology benefit emerging authors, or will it favor established names who already have data-driven track records?
Dr. Köhler: It could go either way. Established authors may have an advantage because their past success can be easily analyzed. However, the software also allows emerging authors to break through if they can tap into current trends that resonate with readers. There’s a delicate balance here; if the algorithm isn’t careful, we might end up with homogenized storytelling.
Editor: It’s fascinating to think about the potential trade-offs. What about the ethical implications of using AI in this way? Can we predict if consumers will embrace or resist such technology?
Dr. Köhler: That’s an essential consideration. The use of AI in creative fields often raises ethical questions about creativity, authenticity, and intellectual property. Consumers may appreciate the tailored recommendations that come from such a system, but they could also rebel against the notion of their reading preferences being dictated by algorithms. It will be vital for publishers to find a balance between data-driven insights and human intuition.
Editor: As this technology rolls out next January, how do you foresee the landscape of the publishing industry evolving in the next few years?
Dr. Köhler: We are likely to see a shift towards a more analytical publishing environment where decisions are increasingly based on data rather than gut feeling. We may even witness the rise of niche markets as the data reveals previously unnoticed reader preferences. However, it also means the industry must remain vigilant about maintaining diversity in voices and stories amidst growing data influence.
Editor: Thank you so much for sharing your insights today, Dr. Köhler. It’s clear that while technology can enhance the publishing process, preserving the essence of storytelling remains paramount.
Dr. Köhler: Thank you! It’s all about blending the best of both worlds – harnessing technology while nurturing the creative spirit of authors. I’m excited to see how the industry adapts!