2023-06-05 19:27:41
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that airlines will obtain a net profit of 9,800 million dollars (9,165.45 million euros) in 2023, which means doubling the previous forecast of the association, which forecast a profit of 4,700 million dollars (4,395 million euros).
IATA, which celebrates these days its annual summit in Istanbul, thus sees a strengthening of the profitability of the aviation sector with respect to what was expected last year.
operating profit of the sector would reach 22,400 million dollars (20,940 million euros), well above the previous forecast of 3,200 million dollars (2,992 million euros).
Regarding the load, he expects the volumes to be of 57.8 million tons, somewhat below the 61.5 million tons transported in 2019 with a sharp slowdown in international trade volumes.
Total revenue would grow by 9.7% year-on-year to 803,000 million dollars (751,005.75 million euros), while expenses would present an annual growth of 8.1%.
“The financial results of the airlines in 2023 are exceeding expectations“, pointed out the director general of IATA, Willie Walsh, who explains this improvement by “several positive developments”, the lifting of restrictions in China earlier than expected. Walsh also highlights that, on the cost side “there are some relief”, since fuel prices, “although still high, have moderated in the first half of the year.
Inflation, war and recession
However, the economic and geopolitical environment presents several risks to the outlook. The net profit margin is 1.2%, Therefore, the profitability of the sector is fragile and could be affected (positively or negatively) by various factors.
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Specifically, IATA highlights that the measures to fight inflation are maturing at different rhythms in the different markets and that there is still a risk of recession.
Furthermore, the war in Ukraine continues and an escalation of tension could have very negative consequences for the world aviation. Problems in the supply chain also remain due to political tensions and aircraft manufacturers are finding it difficult to complete the production cycle.
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