Edmonton — February 9, 2026 — A growing push for Alberta to separate from Canada isn’t gaining widespread traction, according to new polling data. Despite recent petition drives and lively town hall meetings, most Albertans still prefer remaining part of Canada.
Alberta Separation Support Remains a Minority View
A recent survey reveals that while the idea of independence has vocal proponents, a clear majority of Albertans aren’t ready to leave Confederation.
- 65% of Albertans would vote to stay in Canada or lean toward doing so.
- Just 29% would vote to leave or are leaning that way.
- Premier Danielle Smith’s neutral stance on separation is unpopular with a majority of respondents.
- Concerns about economic fallout and a strong Canadian identity are key reasons for staying.
A poll released Monday by the Angus Reid Institute found that 65 percent of the 979 Albertans surveyed would either vote to stay in Canada or lean toward voting that way if a referendum on Alberta separation were held today. Conversely, 29 percent said they would vote or lean toward voting to leave.
A: While a vocal minority supports separation, the latest data shows a clear majority of Albertans prefer to remain part of Canada, though a significant portion remain open to the idea.
Of those committed to remaining in Canada, 57 percent stated they would definitely vote to stay, while 8 percent lean toward staying. On the other side, 8 percent of those favoring separation would definitely vote to leave, with 21 percent leaning toward a vote for independence. Five percent of respondents remain undecided.
Political Leaders and Public Opinion
The survey also indicated dissatisfaction with Premier Danielle Smith’s approach to the separation question. A majority of Alberta respondents disapprove of her neutral stance, favoring the more federalist positions of Prime Minister Mark Carney, Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, and former premier Jason Kenney.
Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, emphasized the importance of the 21 percent who lean toward leaving. “This is really going to be where the heart and soul of the fight for Alberta sovereignty versus Alberta remaining [in Canada] will boil down,” she said. “In the end, do they tip all the way over into definitely voting to leave, or do they lean back and tip back to the stay side?”
Another poll, conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights last December, also suggested that roughly one in five Albertans would vote to separate.
The Angus Reid Institute survey was conducted through an online survey from February 2 to February 6, 2026.
Could Alberta actually leave Canada? The province could be headed to a referendum vote on the topic this year if a petition launched by separatists is successful. Here are the facts.
Divisions Within the UCP
Kurl highlighted a “political division” within the United Conservative Party (UCP) regarding separation, contrasting it with the strong support for remaining in Canada among Alberta NDP voters—93 percent of whom favor staying.
“The UCP base is interesting because it is much more divided,” Kurl said. Forty-one percent of UCP voters lean toward leaving, while 16 percent would definitely vote to leave. However, 26 percent of UCP voters would definitely vote to stay, outnumbering those who would definitely leave.
When asked whether federal MPs should declare their position on provincial separatism movements, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet said ‘I know that there are some MPs within the Conservative party which have a heart inclining toward independence of Alberta.’
Key arguments for separation include the belief that Alberta doesn’t receive a fair share of Canada’s benefits and the desire for complete control over its natural resources. Those who favor staying cited potential economic challenges and a strong sense of Canadian identity.
If Alberta were to vote to leave Confederation, 74 percent of those who would vote to stay said they would move to another province or territory, while 23 percent would remain in an independent Alberta.
A majority of Albertans who favor remaining in Canada expressed concern about the possibility of the United States annexing an independent Alberta. “There is very little appetite among Albertans to become American,” Kurl said. “You’ve even got a majority [of all survey respondents], just over half, who think that there would be attempts at military persuasion or military means.”
Premier Smith has stated she prefers “a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada” but has avoided criticizing the independence movement within her UCP base. Fifty-four percent of respondents disapprove of her approach, giving her a net approval rating of minus 17 on separatism. Prime Minister Carney has a plus-seven net approval rating.
The Alberta independence petition launched last month by Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre needs approximately 178,000 signatures by May 2 to trigger a referendum. Sylvestre expressed confidence in reaching the threshold, stating, “I don’t believe we’re going to have any problem reaching the 177,000 threshold. The referendum will happen.”
Separation petition signing events are ongoing across Alberta. The “Forever Canadian” petition, launched last year to maintain Alberta’s place in Canada, was verified as successful by Elections Alberta after receiving over 400,000 signatures.
