Yankees Face Elimination as Rodon Takes the Mound Against Bieber in Game 3
Despite being down 2-0 in the series, New York has reason for optimism with ace Carlos Rodon on the hill, but a deeper look suggests a longer-term play may be the smarter bet.
The New York yankees face a daunting task Tuesday night in Game 3 of their best-of-five series against the Jays.Tasked with keeping the Yankees’ season alive is left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon, who has proven too be a remarkably consistent force on the mound this year. Rodon logged 33 starts,195 1/3 innings,and maintained a solid 3.09 ERA, establishing himself as one of the leagueS most dependable starters.
Beyond the traditional statistics, Rodon’s advanced metrics paint a picture of a pitcher in control. According to Baseball Savant, he landed in the 79th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), the 85th percentile in expected batting average against, and an impressive 84th percentile in whiff rate. This suggests his success isn’t simply luck, but a result of skillful pitching.
Though, the Blue Jays present a formidable challenge, currently favored at +132 to win Game 3 but heavily favored at -550 to win the series overall. Toronto will counter with right-hander Shane Bieber, a former Cy Young Award winner.
Analysts acknowledge the difficulty of drawing definitive conclusions from the first two games. “The Blue Jays got exactly what they needed out of their two starting pitchers, they came up with clutch hit after clutch hit on offense and they played the Yankees out of the building in both games,” one observer noted. “You tip your cap, but it’s hard to imagine things will come as easily for Toronto moving forward.”
While Bieber boasts a decorated past, his recent performance has been less convincing. Recovering from Tommy John surgery, Bieber’s transition to Toronto has been uneven. He has effectively limited walks, but is allowing a concerning amount of hard contact. If he had enough innings to qualify, Bieber would rank poorly in both hard hit rate and barrel percentage, resulting in a concerning 1.8 home runs allowed per 9 innings. This is not an encouraging sign against the power-hitting Yankees.
While the price on the Yankees to win Game 3 appears reasonable, a more strategic approach may lie in looking beyond Tuesday night. The Toronto media, perhaps influenced by the maple Leafs’ history of playoff disappointments, is framing Game 3 as a must-win. While this sentiment may be overstated, it highlights a key strategic advantage for New York.
The Yankees have already designated Cam Schlittler as their starter for a potential Game 4, while the Blue Jays would likely be forced to utilize a bullpen game led by Eric Lauer. This provides a clear advantage to the Yankees should they extend the series. Furthermore,if the Yankees manage to return to Toronto,they would have their ace,Max Fried,ready to face Kevin Gausman in a decisive matchup.
“In other words, ther is a path to a comeback here,” a source close to the team stated. “And should the Yankees erase a 2-0 series deficit and advance, they’ll be brimming with confidence, and as risky as any team left in the field.”
This potential for a turnaround makes a longer-term wager on the Yankees’ World Series prospects particularly appealing. While not a high-probability bet, backing the Yankees to win the World series at 16/1 (via BetMGM) offers significant value given the potential for a deep playoff run should they overcome this initial hurdle.
The Play: Yankees to win the World Series 16/1 (BetMGM)
This analysis is brought to you by the team at New York Post Betting, led by Michael Leboff, a seasoned sports bettor with 10 years of experience utilizing game theory to identify profitable opportunities in the world of sports wagering.
