Farmers and olive oil producers do not hesitate to ensure that the harvest that ends this month is “the worst in history.” An impression ratified by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, which a month ago revised its estimates to end up predicting that production will be around 768,894 tons. That is to say, 48.4% less than in the previous one, a piece of data that raises fears for the supply and presages new price increases.
Behind this cut in production are the lack of rain in spring, the restrictions on irrigation due to drought and excessive heat in summer, which have reduced the quantity, quality and size of the olives. In addition, from the Agrarian Association of Young Farmers (Asaja) they assure that “the next harvest is also very worrying because the bad situation in which the olive trees will find themselves due to the lack of water will mean that, if we do not have an autumn and winter with more rainfall enough, they are weak to load olives».
With committed imports (other large producers suffer the same problems) and the link stock (oil stocks between the end of one season and the start of the next) estimated at 450,000 tons, stocks would be around 1.2 million tons. If we compare this figure with the 1.6 (1.1 in exports and just over 500,000 in domestic consumption) of the previous campaign, we find ourselves in a very stressed market but without supply problems.
For this reason, despite the fact that some voices warn about the lack of supply and the risk of speculation, Minister Luis Planas has asked the sector to make an effort to moderate prices, which originally are already at 5,209 euros per kilogram for extra virgin olive oil, 4,540 euros for virgin and 4,375 for lampante, which is gaining presence in the market given the increase in olives that have some defect. However, the main organizations of farmers and producers believe that it is an incoherent request given the increase in costs registered since the increase in the cost of diesel or phytosanitary products to the entry into force of the tax on non-reusable plastic containers.