Predictions and betting analysis for the crucial derby between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos at Leoforos, for the 21st matchday of the Stoiximan Super League.
The game that certainly stands out from the 21st matchday of the Stoiximan Super League is none other than the eternal derby between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos (21:00 Cosmote Sport 1HD, Live from SPORT24). A particularly crucial and important match for the economy of the league and the battle for the title.
Panathinaikos, after last week’s defeat in Toumba by PAOK, dropped to third place and -3 from the top, where the Northern Doubleheader is located. Olympiacos, for its part, is three points behind the greens and -6 from first place.
In short, this particular derby is extremely important for the two centenarians in terms of points. Panathinaikos, on the other hand, will look for an immediate reaction to stay at least within a shot of the top, while Olympiacos has no room for new losses, as in the event of no victory, they will probably see the gap open again from the top. It is recalled that for the same matchday, the pioneer PAOK plays in Peristeri with Atromitos and the second AEK host Asteras Tripoli.
The positive thing for Olympiakos is that they found a relatively good series of results, making three consecutive wins against Kifisia, Ari and PAS Ioannina in the championship. Of course, in between the red and whites experienced a tough disqualification in the cup, losing on penalties to Panathinaikos, in “Karaiskakis”.
Another Olympiacos in the second half
What is required from now on for Carlos Carvalhal’s team is to enter the playoffs with as little difference as possible from the teams it is chasing, in order to claim the title with increased chances. The red and whites choosing to make eight transfers in January (Navarro, Martins, Carmo, Horta, Ciquinho, Abi, Vezo, Cabral) sent the message that they are determined to fight it to the end.
Of course, it is not easy for any manager in the world to immediately integrate eight new players into a team, especially when we are talking about the winter transfer window. Navarro and Martins, however, have already received enough playing time, while both Horta and Ciquinho made their debut with PAS Giannina.
In any case, Olympiacos is one of the contenders that will have a clearly changed face in the second half of the season and it remains to be seen how much improved it will be. Moreover, we must not forget that Biel left for Augsburg and Kamara was left out of the plans, due to disciplinary reasons. Instead, El Kaabi is being counted on again to spearhead the attack after Morocco were knocked out of the Africa Cup of Nations and as such the 30-year-old forward is expected to be regular in the red and white squad for Sunday’s derby.
Panathinaikos is all-in with Terim
There have certainly been significant changes in Panathinaikos as well. First and foremost on the bench, where Fatih Terim replaced Ivan Jovanovic. This particular move as well as the transfers of Bakaseta, Limniou, Dragovski, Vitor Ugo and Akaidin are indicative of the intention of the greens to play their… rest for the title this year.
In nine official matches with Terim on the bench, Panathinaikos has a record of 4-3-2 and two important cup qualifiers, which brought it to the semi-finals of the institution. First against Olympiakos, inside Faliro, in a match where the clover lined up decimated and Terim reached the point of using the stopper Akaidin at the top of the attack in extra time.
And of course the one on Wednesday against Atromitos, where Panathinaikos prevailed 2-0 in Peristeri, thanks to goals from Pereth (35′) and Mladenovic (95′) and thus overturned the defeat he had suffered a week before at Leoforo with 2-1.
In these first 30 days of Terim on the green bench, the Turkish coach showed that he is not afraid to take risks and make choices even outside of common sense. Also, it is clear that during the matches he is much more intrusive compared to his predecessor and apart from faces, he does not hesitate to change formations.
Also, Terim had no qualms about throwing Bakaseta straight into the deep end. With one training session, he started him in the cup game against Atromitos, on January 24, and then gave him a starting shirt again in the derby with PAOK and in the return match against Peristeri.
But aside from the reinforcements, the good news for the Turkish coach is that he sees his options increasing, after Fotis Ioannidis and Juancar returned to training. Both are expected to be included in the squad for the derby, however it is not yet certain how long they are fit to play. On the contrary, it will be difficult for Sporar and Verbic to catch up, while the injured Vaiannidis, Magnuson and Palmer-Brown are ruled out.
Both are looking for a big derby win
In betting, Panathinaikos is favored at 2.32, while Olympiacos is an outsider at 3.15, with the tie playing at 3.30. The two eternals have already met three times this year. In the cup, their matches ended in a draw and qualification was decided on penalties. Also, in the first round of the championship, the match was never finished and was awarded in favor of Panathinaikos with 3-0, while the score was tied 1-1 when the match was stopped.
Essentially, Panathinaikos and Olympiacos have not managed to win a derby this year. If we exclude the game in Faliro, which was decided in the courtrooms, the greens have a record of 0-4-2 this year in six duels with AEK, PAOK and Olympiacos in the league and cup. Accordingly, Olympiacos has a record of 0-3-2 in this year’s matches against Panathinaikos, AEK and PAOK.
In the logic that a draw doesn’t serve their plans, so they’ll both just play for the win, it looks pretty normal option Goal/Goal at outsider prices in Stoiximan, at 1.91. With a little more risk, we can also see the possibility of the derby ending at 1-1, as happened in the recent duel between the two eternals on the Avenue for the cup. That choice, that is 1-1 at any time in the match, pronounced at 2.50 in Stoiximan.
As far as the special bets are concerned, the card line came out at 6.5. Derbies always have intensity and passion. However, in their two cup matches in January, five yellow cards were issued in Leoforos and six in “Karaiskakis” with extra time. The referee was appointed Sven Jablonski, who has officiated 10 games in the German Bundesliga this year and averaged just 3.2 yellow cards. In general, German referees are sparing with cards and try to control matches more with their personality.
If we choose the Under 6.5 cards, together with the Over 7.5 corner we build a Bet Builder at odds of 2.67 on Stoiximan. It is recalled that in the cup derby at Leoforos, Panathinaikos had won five corners and Olympiacos three. In fact, both teams had scored from such executions, Olympiacos with Alexandropoulos, Panathinaikos with Ioannidis.
* Yields may be subject to change.