Vienna. There are 183 MPs in the Austrian National Parliament, so at least 92 MPs are required for a simple majority. On many issues, however, a simple majority is not required, but a two-thirds majority, that is, at least 122 seats, according to the Constitution. A constitutional majority is required for laws affecting, among others, the federal states, the EU and the constitution.
During the counting of the ballots on Monday, another deputy seat went from ÖVP to FPÖ. Thus, the People’s Party had 51 (-20), the Greens 16 (-10), the FPÖ 57 (+26), the Neos 18 (+3) and the SPÖ 41 (+1). The Kurier Newspaper listed the possibilities as follows:
- FPÖ-ÖVP with 108 seats
The issues that support this are: In terms of content, there is the greatest consensus on fundamental issues such as the economy, immigration and the rejection of new taxes, while similarities prevail in terms of social policy, ie
Detractors: Opposing views on EU issues or Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and the clear position of the ÖVP leadership against the FPÖ leader Kickl is a main problem. But there is no reason for the FPÖ to stop considering Kickl as prime minister or otherwise eliminate him.
- FPÖ-SPÖ with 98 seats
What supports this: Historically, the SPÖ was the first party to bring the FPÖ into government in the Second Republic. Under Sinowatz with FPÖ President Norbert Steger from 1983 to 1987, there was a break when Haider took over from Steger and SPÖ leader Franz Vranitzky ended the red-blue. Before this, the SPÖ minority government was formed in 1970 with the consent of FPÖ leader (and SS-Obersturmführer) Friedrich Peter.
Those who oppose it: In 2004, the SPÖ decided at its party conference not to enter into a coalition with the “right-wing populist FPÖ”, and this decision is still valid today. A large majority accepted the relevant proposal submitted by the Socialist Youth at that time. The decision only applies at the federal level; state assemblies must decide independently in each case; At the state level, there have been SPÖ-FPÖ coalitions, for example in Burgenland (2015) and Carinthia (2004).
- ÖVP-SPÖ with 92 seats
What’s in this favor: It will be easier to agree on a government program even with a very narrow majority, because only two parties will be needed to agree. The version known as the “grand coalition” was the most popular coalition in the history of the Second Republic.
Opposing aspects: ÖVP leader Nehammer and SPÖ leader Babler showed great differences and countermeasures during the election campaign and have little political overlap. In addition, if there is a very small majority in the parliament it is very difficult to have a stable government; any member of parliament can make demands or threaten to issue a coalition book.
- ÖVP-SPÖ-Neos: 110 seats
Spoken in favor: A more likely option is a stable majority, if there is not currently a constitutional majority. The political overlap is not yet discernible, but it should not be impossible to find.
What was said against him: An agreement between the Turkish and Red parties seems already difficult; If the Neos are to join them, it will be even more difficult. The Neos had already made it clear that they were ready to form such a coalition, but that they would not create it “at any cost.”
- ÖVP-SPÖ-Greens with 108 seats
Spoken in favour: A variable with a stable majority. But like VP-SP-Neos, it would be difficult to find a thematic overlap specifically for the ÖVP, because that change would be much more “left”.
Talks against: The Greens will not want to do without Climate Minister Leonore Gewessler, but in the election campaign the People’s Party supported Gewessler (especially because she approved the restructuring of the EU).
- ÖVP-SPÖ-Neos-Greens with 126 seats
Spoken in favor: This would be the only option with the largest majority of 125 MPs and also the essential constitutional majority for almost all major reforms.
The con: So far, not even a three-party coalition has been formed in Austria, so a four-party coalition seems unlikely. The question of an overlap between the ÖVP, SPÖ, Neos and the Greens is also difficult to imagine, although not impossible. Ultimately, the ÖVP-SPÖ-Neos or ÖVP-SPÖ-Greens versions would need one more party to achieve a two-thirds majority.
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Political Expert on Austrian Parliamentary Dynamics
Time.news Editor (TNE): Welcome, everyone! Today, we’re diving into the intriguing political landscape of Austria following the recent parliamentary elections. Joining us is Dr. Lena Schwarz, a political scientist with extensive expertise in Austrian politics. Thank you for being here, Dr. Schwarz!
Dr. Lena Schwarz (DLS): Thank you for having me! I’m excited to discuss the current dynamics in the Austrian National Parliament.
TNE: Let’s start with the basics. The recent elections have reshaped the parliamentary landscape significantly. Can you give us a brief overview of the current breakdown of parliamentary seats?
DLS: Absolutely! There are now 183 Members of Parliament (MPs) in total. To form a simple majority, a coalition would need at least 92 seats. However, for critical issues that require a constitutional majority, at least 122 seats are necessary. The results show that the People’s Party (ÖVP) has 51 seats, the Greens have 16, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) has surged to 57, the Neos have 18, and the Social Democrats (SPÖ) hold 41 seats.
TNE: Fascinating! With the shifts in seat distribution, what are the potential coalition options on the table?
DLS: There are a few key possibilities. The most notable include:
- FPÖ and ÖVP would combine for a total of 108 seats, as there seems to be consensus on economic issues and social policy, despite challenges around EU matters and differing views on Ukraine.
- FPÖ and SPÖ, forming 98 seats, could leverage their historical ties, even though the SPÖ has a longstanding resolution against collaborating with the FPÖ at the federal level.
- ÖVP and SPÖ, which would yield only 92 seats, could be easier to manage due to needing only two parties, but the leaders’ divergent campaign positions might complicate this relationship.
- Lastly, a coalition of ÖVP, SPÖ, and Neos offers a more stable 110-seat majority, which could be attractive given the need for a more robust government.
TNE: Those coalition dynamics are truly critical. Given the historical context, how significant is the SPÖ’s previous decision against partnering with the FPÖ, and does it still hold weight?
DLS: Yes, that decision from 2004 remains a crucial factor. It reflects a broader reluctance within the SPÖ to align with what many perceive as far-right populism. However, historical precedents exist, as seen in regional governments where SPÖ and FPÖ have partnered. This duality indicates that while the federal stance is firm, political pragmatism can still emerge locally.
TNE: What implications would a coalition between the FPÖ and ÖVP have on Austria’s domestic and foreign policy, particularly regarding issues like immigration and EU relations?
DLS: A coalition between the FPÖ and ÖVP would likely strengthen stances against immigration and prioritize economic policies that reject new taxes. However, the discord over EU policy and approaches to international issues, particularly the war in Ukraine, could pose significant hurdles. The ÖVP has a history of pro-European Union policies, while the FPÖ often espouses skepticism toward EU integration.
TNE: It sounds like negotiation will be key in this landscape. As we know, slight shifts can easily destabilize a fragile coalition. What challenges do you foresee in maintaining stability?
DLS: Absolutely! A narrow majority, such as in a potential ÖVP-SPÖ coalition, could make the government vulnerable to individual MP demands and political blackmail. Coalitions relying on consensus must be keenly aware of internal dissent, which can arise easily from differing party ideologies. Additionally, the newfound strength of the FPÖ creates pressure on the ÖVP to engage in more extreme right-leaning policies, which could alienate moderate voters.
TNE: It’s indeed a complex situation. To wrap up, what can we expect in the near future given these dynamics?
DLS: Expect negotiations to extend over the coming weeks as parties explore coalition potentials. While there’s a push for stability, underlying tensions related to party ideologies and public sentiment could ultimately shape the future of governance in Austria. The decisions made here will set the tone for both domestic policies and Austria’s role within the EU.
TNE: Thank you, Dr. Schwarz, for sharing your insights on this evolving political narrative. It’s a crucial moment for Austria, and we appreciate your expertise in this discussion.
DLS: Thank you for having me! I look forward to seeing how these developments unfold.
TNE: And that concludes our interview. Join us next time for more insights into the world of politics!