In the previous election for the National Assembly in 2022, the turnout was 48 percent. Survey institutes estimate total participation at 67.5 to 69 percent, the highest since 1997. About 49 million voters are asked to re-elect members of the National Assembly.
The election could pave the way for right-wing populists to power. It would be the first time since the end of the Second World War that a right-wing party came into government. Whether that actually happens will not be decided until after the second round on July 7.
The head of state of France, Emmanuel Macron, surprised the new election after the government camp lost in the European elections at the beginning of June. His hope that the French would vote differently in a national election does not appear to be confirmed, according to the opinion polls. Among these, the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) was firmly in the lead.
“These are not easy elections, the results are very uncertain, the consequences could be serious for society,” said 38-year-old Julien Martin as he cast his vote in Bordeaux. Roxane Lebrun, who is 40 years old, said she no longer recognized her country. “We must continue to fight for what we believe in and what we want for France.”
Several prominent politicians also went to the polls this morning. President Macron and his wife Brigitte cast their votes in Le Touquet in northern France. Jordan Bardella, the leader of the RN who favored the poll, went to a polling station near Paris.
In the polls, the right-wing populist RN exceeded its result in the European elections and recently achieved 34 to 37 percent. The green-left electoral alliance New Popular Front received 27.5 to 29 percent of the vote, Macron’s government camp was far behind with 20.6 to 21 percent.
According to some surveys, the RN even has a chance to win a clear majority in the National Assembly. To do this, the party – together with bishops from the conservative Republicans – would have to get 289 of the 577 seats. Recently, the RN had 88 members.
If the right-wing populists win a clear majority, Macron could be forced into a forced marriage with them and make 28-year-old RN party leader Bardella prime minister. This could pave the way for former RN leader Marine Le Pen to become president in 2027.
According to the polls, there could also be a result where none of the camps get a majority as the country slides into a permanent political crisis. France has yet to negotiate a coalition based on the German model.
Several dozen candidates are likely to be elected in the first round due to high voter turnout. Before the second round on July 7, the question is raised as to how many candidates could withdraw to prevent an RN candidate from winning.
A victory for the right-wing populists in the parliamentary election would mean the biggest turning point in France in recent times. The party has outlined some of its radical positions – such as the goal of leaving the EU or ending Franco-German military projects. However, she entered the election campaign with an anti-European and xenophobic program, in which significant points of conflict with Macron’s previous course, but also with the French constitution and EU rules, are emerging.