Altshuler Shaham is one of the best bodies in money management, but an unwritten law states that there is ultimately a convergence to the average and that is what has happened to Altshuler in the last year and a half. One investment manager can be excellent for a certain period because he catches the wave of technology or because he has moved investments abroad or because he has decided that this local real estate is great. But it’s hard to impossible to hit over and over again when you’re a big body. This is why over time, the gaps between the returns of key entities are not so great. This is why by the way you need to concentrate on lowering the management fee. Reduce your management fee by 0.3% per year and you have earned another 15% -20% in your pension savings.
And yet – there are winners and losers in the short and medium term and there are managers who know how to generate an excess return. It’s hard to “bet” on them – last year’s winning horse will not necessarily be this year’s winning horse and therefore all the moves made by insurance agents are a joke (extension here) and yet – there are entities that know how to generate a return. Altshuler Shaham, who is a veteran body, has known for a long time to produce an excess return. But already over a year ago squeaks started and we were the first to signal about it. A change of direction in the returns of these entities may be a trigger for a wrong investment move that can also give its signals later on. Therefore, on the one hand one should be wary of mobility only because of returns, but yes one can use mobility and move to a cash register or fund when identifying a trend.
In any case, Altshuler which provided excess returns mainly because of investments in Chinese stocks disappointed last year and this made medium-term returns also look average. From here to the departure of colleagues the road is short. Revenues are at a rate of NIS 3 billion in recent months. It’s not easy, but Altshuler who swallowed Psagot’s provident funds knows how to deal with it, what’s more and it should be remembered – that the low yields will not be forever. Those who leave now are somewhat reminiscent of those who leave when the market goes down and then come back when the market goes up.
Altshuler’s problems focus on provident funds and study funds, where it is huge – a management of close to NIS 200 billion, but the fastest growing area – pensions, is absorbing monthly redemptions for the first time due to low yields. Balchuler decided about two years ago to give gas in the field of pensions and they are certainly successful with a volume of funds close to NIS 30 billion, compared to about NIS 18 billion about a year ago and below NIS 10 billion two years ago. But in the last month, for the first time, there have been mobile redemptions of about NIS 80 million. An amount that may be negligible, but an amount that reflects a continuing trend of declining accumulations and beyond redemptions.
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