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Victims of a demand which is slowing down and production, on the contrary, still sustained, in China and Russia, aluminum prices are falling and have returned to their level of a year and a half ago.
Aluminum does not escape the fears affecting base metals. The combined effect of the very sharp increase in interest rates in the United States, and the energy crisis, seriously undermines consumption projections. The market anticipates lower demand. As a result, prices have fallen by almost half compared to the heat wave in March, to return to their level of a year and a half ago. ” The market has shifted from a geopolitical reading linked to supplies to a macro-economic reading sums up Yves Jegourel, professor at the National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts.
Although constrained, the Russian offer is maintained
The fall in prices is fueled by a satisfactory supply: the world market is largely supplied by China, by Bahrain, whose production doubled in the first half of this year compared to 2021, but also thanks to Russian production, which some feared. the collapse.
When aluminum prices jumped last March, it was indeed for fear of a slowdown in the activity of the giant Rusal which had produced 3.7 million tonnes last year. But in the end, no sanction was decreed against the Russian aluminum sector, apart from that issued by Australia, which banned the export of bauxite and alumina to Russia to curb processing there.
Russia has compensated with Chinese supplies – China has more than tripled its alumina exports to the destination, since March, compared to the whole of 2021 – which has allowed it to be able to maintain its rate of production, according to figures from the International Aluminum Institute, thanks in particular to the entry into service of a new foundry last December.
Russian aluminum is still popular
The Russian aluminum trade is also doing better than the international context would have suggested. From March to June, the average monthly import of Russian metal to Europe increased by 13% compared to last year. The United States increased its import of Russian aluminum by 20% during the same period. ” Russian producers are not under sanction and remain essential summarizes the raw materials expert.