The annual intelligence assessment of the IDF Intelligence Division was compiled in recent weeks and will soon be presented to the political level. The annual assessment presents a broad spectrum of challenges expected for Israel in 2023, as well as opportunities. The bulk of the assessment focuses on three central points that constitute the main threat to Israel, it was published this morning ( A) in “Israel Hayom”.
1. Global trends
AMN estimates that the global trends that affect Israel and its security will continue to exist at one vertex of the triangle. The struggle between the United States and China, which affects the whole world, is expected to continue and possibly worsen. The war in Ukraine also has an effect, especially in its effects on Europe, whose security has been undermined, without Cheap gas from Russia and no supply chains from China.
Global trends have an impact on the Middle East. Egypt and Jordan, for example, are suffering from an unprecedented economic and nutritional crisis – a result of the war in Ukraine and the spike in grain prices. AMN believes that this crisis – which is added to Lebanon’s transformation into a failed state – may have far-reaching implications for the region, and Israel should act as much as it can to help Egypt and Jordan, for example with green projects that will reduce the danger to the stability of the regime.
Shelling in Ukraine, they also have a global impact Photo: depositphotos
2. Iran
At the second apex of the triangle of challenges expected for Israel in the coming year is Iran and not just the nuclear weapons. For example, in Israel they recently identified Iranian involvement in terrorism in the Judea and Samaria region. In Gaza, Iran is the main financier of the terrorist organizations. Aman estimates that Iran understands that it has failed in its efforts to establish itself in Syria, but it will continue to work to arm the Hezbollah organization.
Regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, the UN estimates that the Shiite country will continue on its current path of slow progress, without taking extreme measures. The UN estimates that Iran will change policy only if extreme measures are taken against it, and then it could enrich uranium to a military level of 90 percent. Israel needs to prepare for this, according to AMAN, in terms of political and military methods of action, so as not to be surprised.
A power plant in southern Iran, archive | Photo: shutterstock
3. Palestinians
The third point that AMN is talking about is the Palestinian arena. Unlike in the past, AMN does not this time look at Gaza and Yosh as separate arenas, but as one piece. A central concern is the day after Palestinian Authority President Abu Mazen and the consequences of that. Hamas Gaza is A major player in this event, because since Operation “Guardian of the Walls” he has been trying to present himself as a real government address and not just as a terrorist organization.
Along with this, there is a renewed increase in the attacks by the “lones”, as well as by new terrorist groups such as the “Lion’s Den” in Nablus, which rely heavily on social networks, and themselves challenge the traditional terrorist organizations and the Palestinian Authority.
Yahya Sinwar hosts a meeting with the Palestinian factions in Gaza Photo: Atia Mohammed/Flash90