2023-06-26 22:43:00
America fears “chaos in nuclear Russia” and is distancing itself from the events
US officials have sought to distance their country from the military rebellion led by the leader of the Russian “Wagner” group of mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in what is considered the most serious challenge in decades to President Vladimir Putin’s authority, acknowledging at the same time that President Joe Biden’s administration is “concerned” about the “very dangerous” chaos. » The fact that Russia is a country that has a huge nuclear arsenal.
In an attempt to confirm their determination to continue supporting Ukraine to defend itself against Russia, and to help it regain its occupied lands, regardless of developments in Russia, US officials have held contacts at the highest levels over the past few days, to coordinate positions between allied and partner countries regarding the Russian events. This crystallized in contacts made by President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, with their Ukrainian counterparts: President Volodymyr Zelensky, and both Ministers Dmitry Kuleba and Oleksiy Reznikov.
Intelligence officials and diplomats continued their efforts to forge a clearer understanding of the historical chain of events in which mercenary forces rushed down a highway, only 200 kilometers from Moscow, without making it clear whether this was a failed coup attempt. The statements of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reflected the Biden administration’s fear of “cracks” in the Russian leadership headed by Putin, recalling that “Russian forces were 16 months ago on the doorstep of Kiev, believing that they would seize it within days, and wipe Ukraine off the map as an independent country.” As for now, he saw that “Russia must defend Moscow (…) against mercenaries made by Putin,” according to what Blinken said on the American “NBC” television network, adding that “we have all kinds of new issues that Putin will have to deal with.” It will be addressed in the coming weeks and months.
Intelligence assessment
High on the list of questions intelligence officials are trying to grapple with is whether Prigozhin has shaken the Kremlin so vigorously that it could prompt Putin to fire the generals or ministers leading the war in Ukraine, as Prigozhin has repeatedly demanded. A Western diplomat questioned the mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to get Prigozhin to step back from Moscow’s doorstep. He asked, “Why did (things) calm down so quickly? And how did Lukashenko, a puppet of Putin, get the credit? Will there be any personnel changes in the military leadership?
Blinken said that despite the settlement announced by Lukashenko, the potential threat to Putin may not have passed. He said, “This is an unfolding story (…) We have not seen the final chapter. We are watching that closely, “adding that what happened constitutes, “at least, an additional distraction, for Putin and Russia, I think it is in the interest of Ukraine.” He reiterated that the upheaval caused by Prigozhin was “just the final chapter in the book of failure that Putin wrote for himself and Russia.”
One Western intelligence official questioned Prigozhin’s survival in Belarus, predicting that “he will either be killed or continue to challenge the Russian military establishment from abroad.” The “Washington Post” newspaper quoted a member of the British House of Commons, Bob Sealy, who works in the Foreign Affairs Committee that has been investigating “Wagner” for two years, asking whether Putin fears that the army did not carry out his orders to prevent “Wagner” forces from entering Moscow last Saturday. , before settling the situation mediated by Lukashenko. He said, “If Putin asked the Russian forces to attack (Wagner), and the answer came: No,” then “Putin was in a desperate phase.”
Another senior European diplomat said the allies hoped to understand what Putin would do domestically in response to the unrest, particularly with regard to any next steps in the event of a stalemate on the Ukraine war front. And he believed that “even the Russian apparatus baffles its leaders,” adding, “We will need some time to absorb, and also to see where things are moving.”
American legislators
US lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans, agreed that the events weakened Putin and strengthened US resolve to continue supporting Ukraine, though some intelligence officials paused before concluding that Prigozhin’s defiance really weakened Putin. But the officials declared that they would “closely watch for any indications that Putin could replace two of the top military commanders whom Prigozhin has targeted, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov, knowing that their dismissal could mean that Putin acquiesces to Prigozhin’s protests against Russia.” These two military leaders, and that the Russian elite has lost confidence in its leadership ».
As for Prigozhin’s next move, American and Western officials are keenly interested to know whether a dispute with Putin will lead him to distance the Russian government from Wagner and withdraw support for its extensive military and security operations in Africa and the Middle East.
Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar said that Prigozhin’s rebellion “is an indication of deeper cracks in Moscow,” as it “shows a clear crack in Vladimir Putin’s inner strength.” And she considered that what happened was “a clear rejection of his war policy, from a man who was his ally and clearly rebelled against him.”
The former director of the CIA, General David Petraeus, described the events as a reflection of weakness on Prigozhin’s part. “It is clear that Prigozhin lost his temper,” he said, adding that Prigozhin “was about a two-hour drive from the outskirts of Moscow; Where they began to prepare defensive positions. This rebellion, though it did get some applause along the way, didn’t seem to generate the kind of support he had hoped it would. And he believed that Putin “should be very careful about open windows in Prigozhin’s new surroundings in Belarus; Where he is heading.”
Democratic Representative Raja Krishnamurthy saw that what is happening is “a battle between two cruel leaders, and also an appropriate reaction to Putin’s actions in recent years.” Referring to Putin, he said, “You reap what you sow.”
Republican Representative Don Bacon said that Putin’s situation is “fragile,” adding that “the only real answer here is that Putin must stop this war and withdraw from Ukraine (…) if he wants to save his country and preserve his leadership position.” I think that’s really the only answer.”
The former US ambassador to Moscow, John Sullivan, confirmed that Putin is “a stubborn opponent of the United States; But the alternative could be worse. He added, “So I think the Biden administration is rightly concerned… about the chaos and uncertainty in Russia, with its nuclear arsenal, which is very dangerous, not only for the United States, but for the world.”
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