Analysis: If Israeli troops move into Gaza, what comes next?
In the aftermath of the recent attacks by Hamas terrorists in southern Israel, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have launched a massive buildup of troops and military material along the Gaza border. With the deployment of 300,000 reservists and the unknown duration of their mission, the situation in the Gaza envelope remains tense.
Two young soldiers, identified only as Tal and Zak, shared their uncertainty about the length of their deployment. They serve in an artillery unit that was moved into the area following the Hamas attack, which resulted in the death of 1,400 people and the kidnapping of approximately 200 individuals. Their unit is just one part of the larger force amassed on the border, as thousands of reservists mobilize to defend their homeland.
While the ground incursion into Gaza by Israeli forces seems inevitable, the specific nature of the operation is still unknown. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hinted at a full-scale invasion, while also mentioning the possibility of precise incursions aimed at recovering hostages and targeting Hamas operatives.
However, the bigger question is what will happen after the incursion. The plan for the future of Gaza and its population of over 2 million people remains unclear. Israeli leadership has expressed a desire to eliminate Hamas entirely, but the details of how this will be accomplished are yet to be revealed.
Harel Chorev, a senior researcher in Middle Eastern studies at Tel Aviv University, believes that any option other than completely eliminating Hamas would have disastrous consequences. He suggests that the entire region, and even the global community, would be negatively affected if Hamas remains in power.
On the other hand, Hasan Alhasan, a research fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, warns that the plan to annihilate Hamas could be dangerous and complex. He argues that Hamas has deep roots within Gaza and its society, making it difficult to defeat them without permanently changing the region’s topography and demographics.
Alhasan further suggests that Israel’s strategy of making the humanitarian situation in Gaza unbearable could lead to a mass expulsion of Palestinians into the Egyptian Sinai. Egypt, supported by other Arab states, is opposed to such a scenario. There are concerns that this expulsion could set a precedent and prompt Israel’s right-wing government to expel Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt and from the West Bank into Jordan.
As tensions rise and Israeli troops prepare to enter Gaza, the international community closely watches the unfolding events. The consequences of the incursion, as well as the long-term plan for the region, will have implications not just for Israel and Palestine but for the entire Middle East and beyond.