In a tributeprobably involuntary, Nestor Kirchner, Javier Miley repeated three times In recent days one of the chicanas with which the former president most enjoyed annoying his critics.
“They’re nervous”the President snapped at the politicians who joined the massive march in defense of the public university last Tuesday. She told the same thing to Cristina Kirchner and her followers, after the event in which the former vice president reappeared on Saturday with the dual purpose of regrouping her followers and stopping the libertarian’s advance on her voters (soft and not so soft).
However, Milei’s reaction, like Kirchner’s before it, is too similar to what in psychology is called projectionthat defense mechanism by which it focuses on other defects or deficiencies.
The magnitude of the demonstration in rejection not only of the budget cut but also of the recurrent verbal attacks by the libertarian and his own on public education had a full impact on the President. And he forced him and his advisors to review your external communication manual, but especially internal, as well as the effectiveness of its management structure and its managers. Operational failures almost always end in crisis when the tailwind dies down or when instead of looking at the horizon, dogma, whim or fallible instruments are insisted upon.
Now Milei has a new and crucial challenge ahead of him in which the result matters, but, as always, also the size (of the defeats and victories). The “Bases Law”‘ class=”com-link” data-reactroot=””>“Bases Law”which this Monday will begin to be discussed in the Chamber of Deputies, after a complex and tortuous approval of the official opinion in committee, not only needs to be approved. The Government specifies that the half sanction has much more than the minimum number of votes required.
“We need to have as many adhesions as possible. That is the signal that they are looking at and are waiting to see some governors who are reluctant to influence (for or against) the Senate.”admits one of the officials who has worked the most in offices, telephones, private homes and provincial government headquarters to ensure that this corrected and reduced mini-version of the previous megaproject finally advances in Congress.
For this reason, the text that achieved the approval of the majority in the Commission should not be considered definitive. Some minority projects, with partial reforms, could still have several chances of sneaking some paragraphs into the text that, it is assumed, will be approved in the lower house.
We could thus be facing another reversal of that Latin maxim that the historian Titus Livy attributed to the Carthaginian general Hannibal: “Better and safer is a certain peace than an expected victory” (A certain peace is better and safer than a hoped-for victory) that the popular proverb turned into “a bad agreement is better than a good judgment.” In this case, in the Casa Rosada they print: “Better a bad ‘Bases Law’ than no law at all.”.
After so many declarations of war on all negotiations and the resounding self-inflicted failure to the first version of the project, an unexpected plasticity has now been imposed, which we try to conceal by following the tactic of the uteruscon new shouts and disqualifications, but as far from the nest as possible.
The power factors that matter most to Milei and can most impact the immediate progress of his Government demand that decisions be based on nothing more than solid determination and (always liquid) presidential popularity. Better than saying is doing (laws). Only the bloody lyrics seem to get to Milei.
Among the political managers of the ruling party, the half sanction in Deputies is already taken for granted. Whatever the case and as long as necessary. Without emergencies or unnecessary delays or intermediate rooms to rest and to vote during the day. Not everything that is discussed and negotiated is exposed to public light. More learnings.
Peronist lessons
Now the ruling party is allowed to look at the Senate. Other learning. Negotiations only with the legislators of the initial chamber are of no use if the second phase is not planned.
A sobering conversation with a tough and elusive governor, but always willing to dialogue and negotiations (for his benefit) like the man from Santiago Gerardo Zamora It served his interlocutors at the Casa Rosada to reinforce the idea that the number of votes in the lower house will matter when it reaches the Senate.
“When you are tight, the number of absentees is as important as the number of those who press the button to approve a project. After achieving the quorum You only need a simple majority of those present. AND Some governors may not want the senators who respond to them to give us the vote, but they can give the vote to those legislators. In this way, the final number required to convert the bill into law would not be half of the total of the Chamber,” explains the hard learning of an official who in four months has taken an accelerated course in negotiation and parliamentary technique.
Now there is more care in the essential details, after the mistake that the Government made in the previous treatment when Milei’s explosiveness, added to inexperience and ignorance, led them to return to commission the project that had already been approved in general without knowing that then everything before was invalidated.
The multiple cuts made to the failed megaproject (worthy of a chainsaw) are an example of realpolitik of the ex-maximalist libertarian government, but also of the economic actors who are excited by milleist fundamentalism. Both ended up assuming that pushing the boundaries of what can be said is a palpable success for the President. And it is not little. But they are beginning to understand that this is easier to achieve than concrete and lasting achievements, which provide the legal security always demanded by businessmen and investors.
They they need and wait for the real restrictions to be lifted. Lowering economic regulations, making labor legislation more flexible, even a little, can go a long way.. Or an enormity for such a squalid, anarchic, inexperienced and heterogeneous (to be generous with the adjectives) parliamentary representation of La Libertad Avanza. The bullish maxim that “if it’s not everything it’s nothing” or that of the super advisor Federico Sturzenegger that “it is now or never” a while ago they entered the official pits for rectification. They are the restrictions of reality, the charismatic leader of LLA would admit, who now mocks the purists, whom he hypnotized with his dogmatism when he launched himself into the public sphere.
These are not the only discomforts they must process within the ruling party nor the only learnings they must draw from the much disqualified politics. After so much defending the autonomy of will, freedom of opinion and independence of judgment of activists, legislators and officials, Milei and her sister Karina begin to try to impose (not without difficulty) some concepts against nature for that force, such as verticality and party discipline.
The scandalous internal disputes in the blocs of national and provincial legislators are also recorded within the Cabinet. Once untouchables like the chief of ministers, Nicolas Posseor the multi-minister and presidential friend, Sandra Pettovellohave felt firsthand, during the last few days, the heat of the fire friend. Everything is precarious. The glue continues to be presidential popularity and the lack of specific weight in political terms of everything that surrounds it. Enough to avoid further complications, but not to prevent new setbacks or resignations.
Karina, more Javier than ever
“One of the incipient problems that we began to notice is that Karina until now was common sense, Javier’s emotional regulator and the best link with the outside world, but the obligations, the difficulties, The distancing from common life that the exercise of power imposes is resenting that sensitivity and shortening the necessary distance to risky extremes. Karina today is more and more Javier. More Siamese than brothers,” explains and admits an expert on presidential intimacy. The shock absorbers are beginning to register the fatigue of the first months of the Government.
To its benefit, Milei currently has the clashes open pit that are recorded in a Kirchnerism until recently hermetically shielded, as was exposed in the last week and reached a peak in the weekend events. Both in which she starred Axel Kicillofas in the one that was the reappearance of Cristina Kirchner and that the Buenos Aires governor suffered from the plain. Another box that was closed to him in just four days.
Maximo Kirchnerhis rival for the Christian inheritance, tells whoever will listen: “If they want to take us down, they should give us an internal one”. And that goes for both the mayors who are opposed to La Cámpora and for Kicillof and his people, who remain aligned with the former president but want to review forms, procedures and speeches for the future.
The same thing happens within the Prowhere the return of Mauricio Macri to the party presidency is not a guarantee to seal leaks towards milleism or dissidence to differentiate themselves from the Government.
The former president, who long ago lost the status of sole and undisputed owner of the party he created, balances and explores new paths with difficulty and without difficulty. This is how it goes from praising Milei to subtle questioning, as she did at the Libertad Foundation dinner.
After talking about the “epic battle” that Milei is carrying out, Macri stressed that the division of powers (ergo, the independence of the Judiciary) and freedom of expression are inherent to a liberal government.. Two subjects that Milei is far from having passed in his first months in office. Above all, after building an alliance in the shadows with the Minister of the Court Ricardo Lorenzetti and to apply, as a consequence of that society, to Ariel Lijo to join the High Court.
Likewise, it is possible for the fundamental right of freedom of expressionwhich Milei repeatedly puts at risk, as she did in her last two weeks plagued by rants without interruption against every journalist and any other critic of his management.
The dissonances in the adversary camps are music to the twelve-tone ears of the President. However, The noises also express that in the two political spaces until recently the majority is beginning to become aware of the need for reconstruction.which, in no case, will be peaceful or silent to try to build a competitive offer, an alternative to the current ruling party.
For this reason, the Government needs to move forward with compelling facts and achievements. The size of the wins and losses matters. For all.