Inflation in Russia will return to the level of June 2016 and will amount to 7.5% by the end of October, according to the consensus forecast, which was compiled by RIA Novosti based on a survey of analysts.
The main factor behind the growth of inflation, analysts called a poor harvest and high prices on world exchanges. The head of the analytical department of the bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev linked the rise in prices in August and September with lump sum payments from the state, but it will no longer affect the October inflation.
The high level of inflation will remain due to peaks in energy prices, interruptions in supply chains, a shortage of semiconductors for cars in the world, increased cost of container transportation and congestion of ports in China and partially closed borders, said Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.
In addition, high prices in other countries may also affect the growth of inflation in Russia, says Dmitry Kulikov, director of the group of sovereign ratings and macroeconomic analysis at ACRA.
Alexander Isakov, senior economist at VTB Capital, and Denis Popov, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank, predict a gradual decline in inflation in the non-food segment. At the same time, household appliances, clothing and footwear will rise in price, says Daria Menshikh, an analyst at the Department of Strategic Development and Economic Forecasting at Gazprombank.
Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development explained the rise in prices for non-food products. This was due to the depreciation of the exchange rate, disruptions in global supply chains, rising prices for the transportation of goods and other factors.
The Bank of Russia previously presented an estimate of inflation at 5.7-6.2%, but later Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin said that at a meeting on October 22, the regulator’s board of directors would clarify this range. At the same time, the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov warned about the presence of risks that the final value will be higher than expected.
In addition, Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev said that inflation in Russia is close to its peak. The Central Bank expects a slowdown in consumer price growth in the IV quarter of this year, Zabotkin said.
Rosstat recently published data on consumer inflation for September. In annual terms, the growth in prices reached 7.4%. Over the past five years, inflation was higher only in February 2016 – then its level was 8.1%.
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