Against the backdrop of the war in Europe, dramatic geopolitical upheavals and upheavals are taking place in the Middle East. In discussions about the global energy crisis in the face of the surge in oil prices,
The young regent, not yet 37 years old, is without a doubt the strongest man and one of the most influential and recurring figures in the region lately. This is thanks to the immense wealth and stability of Saudi Arabia, along with its senior status and its great importance to the international arena. Its position was even strengthened in light of the end of its isolation from the international community, led by the United States, due to its involvement in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashukji in 2018.
Of great importance is the renewal of relations and the establishment of ties with Saudi Arabia and its leader at the international level, as the world’s largest oil exporter, the leading regional power vis-à-vis Iran, and as an important, long-standing and stable ally of the United States. A whole web of different and often conflicting interests, alongside conflicting alliances, alliances and positions, which exist simultaneously in one subordination.
The culmination of all this is the renewed talks and contacts in recent months between the leader of the Sunni world Saudi Arabia and the leader of the Shiite world Iran, despite the bitter rivalry between the two and the historical hostility that divides the Muslim world to this day. All this, with Iran in the background accelerating the development of its nuclear program, and at the same time resuming nuclear talks between it and the world powers mediated by the European Union.
Iranian threat
Thus, while Iran is in severe economic and social distress alongside upheavals at the top of its regime and military-security command, Saudi Arabia, considered one of the most conservative and powerful countries in the Middle East, is thriving economically and has one of the highest GDPs in the world. This year at 7.6% and reaching no less than a trillion dollars.
Moreover, since Ben Salman’s rise to power in 2017 and as part of the ambitious “Vision 2030” he formulated, Saudi Arabia has undergone far-reaching changes on its own initiative. Along with political moves and the fight against corruption, the regent is carrying out social reforms (such as driving licenses for women) and economic revolutions (such as reforms in the housing market and the tourism sector). All this while dealing with the escalation of security threats from Iran, which is working against it through forces loyal to the regime, and its envoys in several hotspots and dimensions (air, land and sea), taking advantage of the kingdom’s long and broken borders.
Examples are the threats made by the Houthis in Yemen, who carry out rocket fire at settlements and airports in Saudi Arabia, alongside terrorist attacks against oil facilities and shipping lanes; Threats by pro-Shiite militias operating in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon against Saudi interests; Iranian attempts to hit Saudi Arabia with cruise missiles and UAVs; and cyber attacks by hostile elements in Iran, targeting critical infrastructure such as energy, electricity and water.
Meanwhile, despite the many reports of direct talks and meetings between Tehran and Riyadh, including the common interest of the two regarding oil pricing, from the point of view of Iran – Saudi Arabia has been and remains a sworn rival. This is due to its ties with the United States and its impact on US policy in the Middle East, especially in light of the economic and security cooperation agreements signed with Israel and developments in the region aimed at producing regional defense and halting its regional influence and nuclear program.
And so, while Iran is immersed up to its neck in problems at home and abroad, Saudi Arabia is the richest, most stable and dominant country among them. Especially under the leadership of Ben Salman, who takes an approach of rapprochement with her – and at the same time makes moves against it in cooperation with the United States and its allies in the Middle East.
It is important to clarify that Saudi Arabia is the leader of the Arab states and the Sunni world (which makes up about 85% -90% of the Muslim world), and that the two holiest places for Islam, Mecca and al-Madinah, are located there. Being the largest country in the Arabian Peninsula, its strategic location at the heart of the Middle East and its senior position in the global energy market give it tremendous geopolitical power.
Saudi Arabia heads the GCC, which unites the Gulf states economically and security-wise, with ARAMCO, the state-owned oil company, the world’s largest oil exporter and more than 60% of its oil shipments coming to Asian countries, including China, Japan and India.
If that is not enough, then Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only producers in the OPEC Plus group that enjoy significant reserves of black gold. They can increase oil production to curb price rises and affect the stability of the global oil market. Geopolitics in the energy market are constantly evolving and facing the eyes of Joe Biden’s Democratic administration.
Geopolitical implications
Here it is important to understand that following the events of the “Arab Spring” in the Middle East (2011) there was a deep crisis of trust between Arab countries and the United States, which supported the overthrow of secular military regimes such as Egypt and Tunisia. These have led to significant changes in the nature and character of relations and interests between Saudi Arabia and the United States as well.
Thus, as the US administration withdraws from its commitment to the countries of the region and shows less presence and involvement in local conflicts (such as the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan), the Riyadh administration acts from a pragmatic and comprehensive vision to complete interests and expand ties beyond Washington.
Aware of the sensitivity and political-security dependence in the United States, Ben Salman advocates “Real Politics,” that is, an aggressive but prudent foreign policy. Significant to this is the expansion of cooperation with China in the fields of technology and infrastructure, with the highlight being the deepening of trade ties and the sale of Saudi oil in exchange for Chinese currency (yuan) instead of the US dollar.
The fact that Saudi Arabia is China’s largest oil supplier in the Middle East (about 2 million barrels a day since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine) and that China acquires more than 25% of Saudi oil exports, has far-reaching global implications that could affect US currency and energy market Global.
The new reality in the Middle East must therefore be examined from a systemic point of view different from what we have known so far. One that takes into account the fact that in parallel with the global changes taking place in the international arena, the entire Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, is undergoing very significant geopolitical upheavals and changes.
This complex situation presents rare opportunities. Along with expanding trade and economic ties between the countries of the region and with the world powers, this is a historic time window that allows for deepening cooperation between them to create security order and stability that will help curb Iran, its threat and the spread of its destructive influence in the region. And here Saudi Arabia is playing a critical role. It is the only country in the region that is in a dominant strategic position and also strong in world politics, which can lead international processes that will affect the entire Middle East.
Thus, it is Muhammad bin Salman, a determined, sharp and revolutionary leader who is also known for his unbridled cruelty (Hashukaji’s assassination), who can adapt to the circumstances and even help the United States, if he so desires, to maintain its global status and balance. Forces in the international arena. Undoubtedly, the Saudi regent is a “winning joker”
The author is an expert on geopolitics, international crises and global terrorism
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