2023-11-04 02:12:37
The United States is considering deploying 180 nuclear warheads to South Korea as part of an effort to contain the nuclear threat from North Korea and reassure Seoul. This conclusion was reached by a recent joint study conducted by the authoritative American company RAND and the South Korean Institute for Policy Studies “Asan”, two of the main analytical centers in the world.
The report examines the options available to South Korea and the United States to strengthen nuclear security in the Republic of Korea. Otherwise, South Korea is expected to face increasing domestic pressure to develop its own nuclear capabilitiesgiven the growing instability in the region due to North Korea’s move towards nuclear weapons and Russia and China’s support for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
In the past, South Korea has relied on the US nuclear umbrella for its security, But in recent years, due to continued missile tests and North Korea’s uncompromising stance on nuclear weapons, there has been a growing desire on the part of South Koreans to consider the option of nuclear weapons. However, there are two schools of thought within South Korea regarding the creation of nuclear weapons.
The first school, called “teleological”, aims to create nuclear weapons as a means of ensuring “nuclear sovereignty,” based on the logic of “nuclear weapons for the sake of nuclear weapons.” The other school, with considerable advantage, supports the creation of a nuclear capability”conditionally independent“, based on confidence-building considerations in the United States’ extended nuclear deterrent. This school suggests the redistribution of American tactical nuclear weapons or the sharing of nuclear resources between South Korea and the United States.
It should be noted that there is a security alliance between the United States and South Korea, with the American armed forces stationed in the country, and in theory, South Korea should be protected by the US “nuclear umbrella.” However, the situation changed after North Korea’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1994 and Seoul’s development of nuclear weapons. Accordingly, South Korean conservatives argue the supply of American tactical nuclear weapons or the creation of its own atomic arsenal.
The essence of this perspective is that without nuclear weapons, South Korea could become vulnerable to a nuclear North Korea. Some believe that South Korea should acquire nuclear weapons to establish a balance of power on the Korean Peninsula and the region, becoming a reliable “middle power” with nuclear capabilities capable of preventing conflicts.
South Korea is believed to have the resources necessary to create nuclear weapons, and this has also been noted in the past by the West. However, the United States has so far provided strong security support to South Korea, arguing that there is no need for South Korea to develop its nuclear weapons. The United States has emphasized the importance of the US nuclear umbrella to South Korea’s security.
The report notes that US extended nuclear deterrence is a commitment to protecting its allies from the threat of nuclear weapons, thus reducing the need for partners to develop or acquire their own nuclear weapons. However, some South Koreans remain skeptical and want more guarantees on nuclear safety, as the United States has not made its position on the nuclear umbrella clear.
The report’s experts list a number of options to improve the strategic clarity of the US nuclear umbrella for South Korea. One of the most interesting options proposes the deployment of about 180 US nuclear weapons in South Korea to ensure the country’s security. This option is considered difficult to implement but could have a positive impact on South Korea’s nuclear security and prevent the creation of a national nuclear arsenal.
The report concludes that it is necessary strengthen the US nuclear umbrella to reassure South Korea and prevent it from developing its own nuclear weapons. The situation in the region has become increasingly unstable due to North Korea’s provocative actions, the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, and the refusal of Russia and China to take action against Korea’s missile tests and nuclear weapons production of the North. Therefore, it is essential to take measures to ensure South Korea’s nuclear security and prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region.
Considerations
It is undoubtedly true that South Korea could eliminate much of the concern about the threat from North Korea if it could seal a previously unrealized peace treaty between the two countries. At the same time, it would be desirable for the current severe embargo against Pyongyang to be gradually lifted. These steps would pave the way for a reduction in tensions between the two sides and gradually help restore mutual trust.
In a period of dangerous escalation of tensions globally, it is important to note that many states are carrying out military build-ups not so much to address real threats, but often for ideological reasons. This arms race represents a more concrete threat than the fears constantly portrayed.
Importantly, the South Korean capital, Seoul, is within range of North Korea’s artillery. However, North Korea would not necessarily need nuclear weapons to cause serious damage to South Korea. Therefore, the question arises as to why Seoul appears to be looking for pretexts to take aggressive actions against Pyongyang, which in turn primarily seeks security guarantees . The solution may lie in promoting dialogue and seeking a peaceful agreement between the two Koreas, which would be in the interest of both countries and stability in the region.
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