“Using the drone technology that allows him to monitor, strike, protect, in a vast area that goes from Libya to Somalia, passing through Syria, Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, theater of the conflict between Azerbajian and Armenia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan it now has the ambitions of a regional power “, explained the American historian Francis Fukuyama. “And these inexpensive drones with no life-threatening pilots, capable of destroying many armored vehicles, can radically change the strategic conception of ground warfare just as the introduction of aircraft carriers put an end to the era of fleets with the battleships: powerful but vulnerable ».
A few weeks ago, on the sidelines of a meeting at Stanford, at his university, for an interview on Biden and the post-Trump unknowns (published at the time in the Courier service) Fukuyama had focused precisely on geostrategic role of Turkey. And he had indicated a truly revolutionary novelty in drones, which he had studied since 2010 (first as a hobby, then for their military importance).
Fukuyama, who evidently has military sources, illustrates the power of these deadly aircraft with an example: in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Turkish flying robots destroyed 200 tanks, 182 artillery pieces and 90 armored cars. Now, the historian continues, Turkey is selling its drones (built at home after Israel stopped selling its own) to Ukraine, which wants to use them against pro-Russian rebels.
Yesterday, American President Joe Biden met Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels. Turkey ended up in Washington’s crosshairs above all for its lack of respect for human rights and for the purchase of Russian S-400 missile batteries. The US reaction is very hard, and not only for the opening of an Atlantic ally to Moscow: the fear is that artificial intelligence with predictive capabilities of the guidance system of these sophisticated missiles will be used by the Russians to steal the secrets of the F- 35, the most advanced “invisible” fighter built by the Americans. Fears fueled by the fact that maintenance of the Turkish S-400 is done by Russian technicians. Washington thus excluded Ankara from the F-35 program.
Erdogan, who has exposed himself too much abroad while inside is in difficulty due to the economic impact of the pandemic, needs US investments and therefore tries to mend relations with the White House. He also wanted to regain Biden’s trust with the offer to keep a contingent of Turkish (Muslim) soldiers in Kabul after the withdrawal of the US and its allies, to garrison and ensure the operation of the capital’s airport. Secondly, it appeared that Erdogan was willing to dismantle the missile system and transfer it to guarded depots.
In reality it seems that Erdogan’s concessions on missiles are much more limited, while the Taliban would be opposed to the permanence of even a limited Turkish contingent, even if made up of Muslim soldiers. Front optimism after the summit.
The only certainty: technology is increasingly crucial everywhere. Cyberwar, with the ability to paralyze even large service networks with web interventions, big data processing, use of increasingly sophisticated drones for surveillance and attack.
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June 14, 2021 (change June 14, 2021 | 22:35)
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