2023-10-24 16:23:00
More than a year and a half after the start of the war in Ukraine, which seriously affected the world economy, already affected by the coronavirus pandemic, the war which broke out on October 7 between Israel and Hamas could bring a new severe blow, warn representatives of international finance participating in an important investment forum in Saudi Arabia. The pessimism displayed this Tuesday, October 24 by certain speakers also served as a reminder of the risks of a possible escalation of violence in the Middle East on the diversification projects of the Saudi monarchy, the world’s leading exporter of crude oil.
The war, triggered on October 7 by an unprecedented attack by the Palestinian terrorist movement against Israel, risks having “a serious impact on economic development”, warned the president of the World Bank, Ajay Banga, at the opening of the Future Investment Initiative (FFI) conference in Riyadh. “I think we are at a very dangerous moment,” he added.
READ ALSO Israel-Palestine: the conflict that Joe Biden did not wantMore than 1,400 people have since been killed on Israeli territory by Hamas terrorists, the majority civilians. On the Palestinian side, more than 5,700 people were killed in retaliatory bombings by the Israeli army, according to figures put forward by the ruling terrorist group, which are impossible to verify.
The international community fears the opening of other fronts, notably with the Lebanese Hezbollah, which, like Hamas, is supported by Iran. “If these issues are not addressed, it will likely mean more global terrorism, more insecurity, more fear and less hope,” said Larry Fink, CEO of asset management giant BlackRock. “And, when there is less hope, we see contractions in our economies. »
“It’s hard not to be a little pessimistic”
More than 6,000 people are attending the three-day forum, dubbed the “Davos of the Desert,” including financiers, business executives and the presidents of South Korea, Kenya and Rwanda, according to organizers.
Innovation and economic transformation, themes of this 7th edition, have been eclipsed by the war. “We sit here against the backdrop of, and I think we all recognize, the aftermath of the terrorist attack in Israel and the events that have unfolded since, and it is desperately sad. So it’s hard not to be a little pessimistic,” said Jane Fraser, CEO of Citi.
READ ALSO Hospital in Gaza: what is this media fiasco called? The violence which threatens to spread in the Middle East is at odds with the policy of regional appeasement advocated by Saudi Arabia, which has moved closer in recent months to its main rival, Iran. Riyadh had also initiated discussions on possible normalization with Israel, but the talks were suspended after the start of the war.
The kingdom is halfway through an ambitious reform program, entitled Vision 2030, led by its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, to reduce its dependence on oil. “Saudi Arabia is entirely focused on its internal transformation, which requires a stable neighborhood,” underlined Kristin Diwan, of the Institute for Arab Gulf States in Washington. “It is more difficult to get people to invest, play golf in Riyadh or sunbathe on the Red Sea coast when the region is associated with war and terrorism,” she said.
Return of stability?
The Saudi authorities, who have condemned the violence against civilians in Gaza and affirmed their support for the Palestinian cause, however seem determined to move forward.
READ ALSO Pascal Bruckner: “Israel is the ideal culprit” In addition to the investor forum, Riyadh is hosting its first fashion week and a boxing match between Tyson Fury and Francis Ngannou. The forum’s opening ceremony featured a vocal performance from Britain’s Got Talent contestant Malakai Bayoh, while a giant dove appeared on a screen behind him. Some participants nevertheless displayed a certain optimism.
The war “is on everyone’s mind,” Laurent Germain, CEO of French engineering company Egis Group, told AFP. “But I think in the economic world we are optimistic people. We hope for a return to stability as quickly as possible. » For Atul Arya, head of energy strategy at S&P Global Commodity Insights, the current geopolitical situation is “difficult”, but “economic development never stops”.
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